Scrutica
Most advanced chips denied. H200/MI325X shifted from presumption of denial to case-by-case review (Jan 15, 2026). Blackwell-class (B200/B300) and Rubin-class strictly prohibited. Domestic production (SMIC 7nm via DUV) partially fills gap — Ascend 910C is now the primary domestic AI accelerator. BIS declared Huawei Ascend deployment violates export rules (May 2025).
Country-level aggregation: 54 facilities, 2478 organizations, 247 supply chain edges. Export control tier: Heavily Restricted. 1 sovereign AI program.
China's domestic compute and its import dependencies, set against the export-control regimes that gate its access to frontier hardware.
Compute Posture
China has 54 tracked facilities, 203 MW aggregate power capacity, 52,000 AI accelerators, under significant export control restrictions. 1 sovereign AI program with $55.7B announced. Supply chain footprint: 247 relationships (187 as supplier, 142 as customer).
Structural Note
Export control exposure: 1063 BIS Entity List designations targeting entities in China. Supply chain partners face procurement constraints through association.
| Name | Type | Status | Power (MW) | GPUs | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba Zhangbei | ai training | operational | 203 | -- | Alibaba |
Per-chip-class GPU inventory across Chinese hyperscalers + leading AI labs. Atomic unit is operator, not facility — no peer publication discloses facility-level inventory for any Chinese hyperscaler. Stockpiled-regulatory-frozen quantity (ByteDance NVIDIA holdings post-Sept-2025 Chinese-regulator block) is reported separately from deployed.
| Chip class | Deployed (est.) | Stockpiled · frozen | Per-operator | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huawei Ascend 910B | 100.0K | — |
| Name | Type | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| PXW Semiconductor Manufactory Co., Ltd. | fab operator | -- |
| Honor Device Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| Epiq Information Technology (Shanghai) Company Limited | other | -- |
Per-layer scoring across the 8 compute-stack layers.
Total power capacity (MW) across China's tracked facilities, drawn from the append-only compute_capacity_snapshots substrate. Each weekly cron firing adds a point; tooltips show per-snapshot provenance.
3 snapshots from 2025-09-17 to 2026-01-03.
Licensed supply-chain database relationship edges, split by direction. Export-side ranks countries that depend on China as a supplier; import-side ranks countries China depends on. Domestic intra-country edges excluded.
China → partner (top 10)
| Partner | Edges | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Taiwan TW | 10 | $10.4M |
| United States US | 45 | — |
| Hong Kong HK | 7 | — |
| South Korea KR | 4 |
| GDS SH-8 Shanghai |
| colocation |
| operational |
| -- |
| -- |
| GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS SZ-1 Shenzhen Guanlan | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS BJ-1 Beijing | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS BJ-2 Beijing | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS BJ-3 Beijing | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS SH-1 Shanghai | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS SH-4 Shanghai | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS GZ-1 Guangzhou | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS CD-1 Chengdu | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS LF-8 Langfang | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS TJ-1 Tianjin | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| GDS CS-1 Changshu | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Holdings Limited |
| Tencent Gui'an Seven Star Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Tencent Holdings Ltd. |
| Tencent Tianjin Cloud Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Tencent Holdings Ltd. |
| Alibaba Cloud Hangzhou Yuhang Super Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Alibaba |
| Alibaba Cloud Nantong Super Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Alibaba |
| Alibaba Cloud Ulanqab Super Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Alibaba |
| Baidu Cloud Computing (Yangquan) Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Baidu |
| Baidu Xi'an Cloud Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Baidu |
| Huawei Cloud Gui'an Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Huawei Technologies |
| Huawei Cloud Ulanqab Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Huawei Technologies |
| Huawei Dongguan Cloud Data Center (Songshan Lake) | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Huawei Technologies |
| ByteDance Volcano Cloud Taihang Computing Centre II (Datong) | hyperscale dc | under construction | -- | -- | ByteDance |
| JD Cloud East China Data Center (Suqian) | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | JD.com, Inc. |
| JD Cloud North China (Langfang) Cloud Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | JD.com, Inc. |
| Kingsoft Cloud Tianjin Yixianyuan Cloud Computing Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited |
| China Telecom Cloud Computing Inner Mongolia Information Park | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | China Telecom |
| China Telecom Guizhou Information Park (Gui'an Cloud Computing Base) | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | China Telecom |
| China Mobile Smart Computing Center — Hohhot (Horinger Campus) | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | 20,000 | China Mobile |
| China Mobile Intelligent Computing Center — Harbin | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | 18,000 | China Mobile |
| China Unicom Hohhot Yun Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | China Unicom |
| China Unicom Guian Cloud Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | China Unicom |
| China Unicom Zhongwei Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | 14,000 | China Unicom |
| Agricultural Bank of China (Data Center) | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| GDS Shenzhen San | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Services Ltd |
| 万国数据深圳3号数据中心 | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| 1A | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| Shenzhen Baiwangxinyun Datacenter | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Shenzhen Yixin Technology Co., Ltd. |
| Telehouse - Beijing BEZ | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Telehouse - Global Data Centers |
| Telehouse - Shanghai Zhangjiang | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Telehouse - Global Data Centers |
| Equinix SH5 - Shanghai | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Equinix, Inc. |
| GDS Beijing | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Services Ltd |
| Equinix SH3 - Shanghai | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Equinix, Inc. |
| HKCOLO | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| 澳門檔案館 Arquivo de Macau | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| 1B | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| Apple iCloud Gui'An data center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| 醫院管理局支援服務中心 Hospital Authority Supporting Services Centre | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| MEGA Gateway | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
Binding layer: GPU Design (Huawei/HiSilicon (CHN)). Chinese entity (Entity List since Aug 2019, 84 FR 43495); allied leverage via three vectors of declining durability: (1) EDA license constraints (transitional, partially resolved via 2025 trade deal), (2) pre-2020 TSMC die stockpile depletion (transitional, exhausted by mid-2026), (3) SMIC equipment constraints under BIS presumption of denial (durable post-2027). Score of 30 blends 2025-2027 period; post-2027 durable leverage alone is closer to 15-20
Single-chip metric: best domestic chip (Ascend 910C, ~780 BF16 TFLOPS per DeepSeek research, authority tier 2) vs frontier (B200, 2,250 BF16 TFLOPS dense, Tensor Core without sparsity) = 780/2250 ≈ 0.35. AGGREGATE ESTIMATES DIVERGE: Epoch AI reports US holds ~75% of global GPU cluster performance vs China ~15% (5:1 ratio), but explicitly acknowledges covering only ~2% of China-destined NVIDIA chips. RAND estimates a "tenfold advantage" (10:1) including untracked stockpiles. The contradiction is real: Epoch measures tracked clusters (undercounts China), RAND includes estimated stockpiles (which would overstate the US advantage if stockpile estimates are high). System-level comparison: CloudMatrix 384 (384x 910C) = 300 PFLOPS BF16, roughly 2x GB200 NVL72 throughput but at 4.1x the power draw — China can partially compensate with brute-force scaling at massive efficiency penalties.
Ascend 910C: ~780 BF16 TFLOPS (~60% H100 inference per DeepSeek). CloudMatrix 384 system: 384x 910C, 300 PFLOPS BF16 — roughly 2x GB200 NVL72 throughput but 4.1x power draw. 2026 target: ~600K units.
ByteDance secured 36K Blackwell GPU cluster through Malaysia cloud operator
B30A: ~50% of B300 performance per TrendForce. Samples reportedly Sept 2025.
Chinese companies stockpiled chips ahead of Oct 2022 export controls
SMIC: 7nm via DUV multi-patterning (~30K wafers/month as of Q2 2025, up from 10-20K in 2024; targeting ~60K by end 2026). No EUV access. 80% chip self-sufficiency target by 2030. Ascend 910C is primary domestic AI chip (~600K units targeted 2026). Binding constraints: HBM supply (from SK Hynix/Samsung), lithography (no domestic EUV), advanced packaging (no domestic CoWoS equivalent at scale). (Source: TrendForce Aug 2025, authority tier 2-3)
| Huawei CloudByteDance: 100.0K |
| 2025-09 ↗ |
| NVIDIA H20 | 53.5K | — | Tencent: 23.5KAlibabaBaiduByteDanceDeepSeek (High-Flyer): 30.0K | 2025-04 ↗ |
| NVIDIA Hopper (H100 / H800 / H20 mix) | 50.0K | — | DeepSeek (High-Flyer): 50.0K | 2025-01 ↗ |
| Baidu Kunlun P800 | 30.0K | — | Baidu: 30.0K | 2025-04 ↗ |
| NVIDIA H100 | 10.0K | — | DeepSeek (High-Flyer): 10.0K | 2025-01 ↗ |
| NVIDIA H800 | 10.0K | — | DeepSeek (High-Flyer): 10.0K | 2025-01 ↗ |
| Huawei Ascend 910C | 1.5K | — | Tencent: 768Alibaba: 768Huawei Cloud | 2026-01 ↗ |
| Total | 255.0K | 0 | 6 operators · 7 chip classes | 2025 - 2026-01 |
| ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) | fab operator | -- |
| Equinix (China) Investment Holding Co., Ltd. ( 亿利互连（中国）投资有限公司 ) | other | -- |
| Equinix Information Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. ( 亿利互连信息技术（上海）有限公司 ) | other | -- |
| Equinix WGQ Information Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. ( 亿利互连（上海）通讯科技有限公司 ) | other | -- |
| Equinix YP Information Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. ( 亿利互连数据系统（上海）有限公司 ) | other | -- |
| Gaohong Equinix (Shanghai) Information Technology Co., Ltd ( 高 鸿亿利（上海）信息技术有限公司 ) | other | -- |
| Atotech (China) Chemicals Ltd. | other | -- |
| Atotech (Yangzhou) Chemicals Ltd. | other | -- |
| ESI Electronic Equipment (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| MKS Instruments (China) Company Ltd. | other | -- |
| Newport Opto-Electronics Technologies (Wuxi) Company Limited | other | -- |
| Red Hat Software (Beijing) Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| Intel Semiconductor (Dalian) Ltd. | other | -- |
| Intel China Ltd. | other | -- |
| ZTE H | equipment maker | -- |
| Intel Products (Chengdu) Ltd. | other | -- |
| QUEST SOFTWARE (ZHUHAI) LTD. | other | -- |
| QUEST SOFTWARE BEIJING COMPANY LIMITED | other | -- |
| Carbon6 Shenzen Technology Company Ltd | other | -- |
| Fairchild Semiconductor (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| Fairchild Semiconductor Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited | other | -- |
| Fairchild Semiconductor Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| Fairchild Semiconductor Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| Leshan-Phoenix Semiconductor Company Limited | other | -- |
| ON Semiconductor (Shenzhen) Limited | other | -- |
| ON Semiconductor Shenzhen China (ONSC) Limited | other | -- |
| ON Semiconductor Technology Hong Kong Limited | other | -- |
| — |
| CHINA CHINA | 2 | — |
| KY KY | 1 | — |
| India IN | 1 | — |
| United Kingdom GB | 1 | — |
| Ireland IE | 1 | — |
| Japan JP | 1 | — |
partner → China (top 10)
| Partner | Edges | Value |
|---|---|---|
| United States US | 14 | $7.2B |
| Taiwan TW | 10 | — |
| Japan JP | 5 | — |
| Hong Kong HK | 4 | — |
| CHINA CHINA | 4 | — |
| United Kingdom GB | 3 | — |
| Germany DE | 2 | — |
| South Korea KR | 1 | — |
| Canada CA | 1 | — |
| EG EG | 1 | — |