Newest input 2024-Q4 (drawn a quarter wide) · no review recorded · hand-reasoned
Plate I. Two dates per analysis, on one axis. The band is the newest input the analysis rests on, drawn at the precision its source gave — a quarter-dated figure is three months wide, a year-dated figure twelve, because a narrower mark would claim precision the source did not supply. The vertical tick is the last recorded human review, drawn as a point because that date is exact. The bar between the tick and its due date is the review cadence; amber is the part that has run past. A hatched track means no review has ever been recorded for that analysis: there is no tick and no window, and the trigger evaluation has no baseline to measure change against. The vertical rule is today.
Five stress cases over the AI-compute supply chain, each with the date it was last reviewed, the age of its newest input, and the events that would force a re-read before its next scheduled pass.
Review triggers — what forces a re-read before the cadence comes due
11 watches across 5 analyses; 5 of them are manual.
A weekly scan compares each analysis’s watch scope against facility records written since that analysis was last reviewed. Where a watch is machine-checkable it reports fired or clear; where the change class is one no table on this platform records — a strike, a cable cut, a published revision to market share — it reports “not evaluable” and never “clear”, because a predicate that cannot fire is indistinguishable from a condition that never occurs. An analysis with no recorded review has no baseline to measure change against, so all of its watches are unevaluable until it is read once.
New or edited Taiwan facility records — capacity, operator, or status change at a leading-edge site. (watched: TW)
New or edited facility records at the substitution foundries the capacity-gap analysis prices (US, Korea, Japan, China). (watched: US, KR, JP, CN)
A tier-1/tier-2 publication of company-level leading-edge foundry share, which would supersede the 2021-vintage CSET country aggregate the concentration input currently uses. (manual — no substrate table records this class)
New or edited facility records across the Gulf, Israel and Turkey — the exposure set the range rings are drawn against. (watched: AE, SA, BH, QA, KW, OM, IL, TR)
A strike, interception episode, or air-defence deployment change in the region. The threat-model parameters are event-driven and no substrate row records this class. (manual — no substrate table records this class)
New or edited Saudi facility records — a new data centre changes which grid zone the exposure analysis has to cover. (watched: SA)
A published change to Saudi transmission topology or substation assignment. The substation edges are the evidenced half of this analysis and nothing in substrate tracks them. (manual — no substrate table records this class)
New or edited Japanese or Korean facility records — memory, wafer, materials or equipment sites. (watched: JP, KR)
A revision to published DRAM or HBM market share. The Korea coupling is stated in share terms, so a share revision changes the size of the claim. (manual — no substrate table records this class)
New or edited facility records in the cable-landing and hub regions the route analysis depends on. (watched: SG, HK, AE, EG, IN)
A cable cut, repair completion, or new system entering service on the tracked routes. No substrate table records cable status; this is the watch most likely to fire between cadence passes. (manual — no substrate table records this class)
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These analyses pin named stress cases to the supply-chain graph. To remove any node and watch the propagation yourself, without a scenario framing, use the cascade engine.
