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Scrutica
Inputs to 2026-08

Scenarios

Five stress cases over the AI-compute supply chain.

Regional disruption scenarios

Explore regional disruptions to chip production, electricity supply and subsea cables, with maps of exposed infrastructure and analysis of supply-chain dependencies.

  1. Taiwan Strait

    Four assumed disruptions to TSMC, with supply-chain cascade results, inventory-buffer calculations and assessments of alternative fabrication capacity.

    Newest input
    2026-06
    Reviewed
    Not recorded

  2. IRGC Missile Range

    Published missile ranges mapped against compute locations; some cloud-region locations are approximate. The analysis does not estimate attack likelihood or defence performance.

    Newest input
    2026-03
    Reviewed
    2026-07-18

  3. Saudi Grid

    Saudi data centres and petroleum facilities compared by assigned substation, regional grid zone and distance; some electricity connections are inferred from corridor proximity.

    Newest input
    2026-08
    Reviewed
    2026-07-18

  4. Tokyo Earthquake

    Earthquake exposure at Japanese memory fabs and suppliers of silicon wafers, photoresist and semiconductor equipment. A separate assessment examines Korean memory producers’ dependence on Japanese inputs.

    Newest input
    2026-Q2
    Reviewed
    Not recorded

  5. Cable Chokepoints

    Submarine-cable routes between Asia and Europe, the chokepoints where they converge, and rerouting latency where an alternative exists. Five historical cable disruptions provide comparisons.

    Newest input
    2024-03
    Reviewed
    Not recorded

Sources and review history

Compare input dates and recorded reviews
Plate I. The band marks the newest input at its recorded precision: three months wide for a quarter, twelve for a year. The tick marks the last recorded review; the bar extends to its due date, with overdue time in amber. Hatching indicates no recorded review. Beneath it, the line with end bars runs from the end of the input period to today. The vertical rule marks today.

Review triggers before the next scheduled pass

The 5 analyses have 11 watches; 5 are manual.

Watches on facility records are checked automatically: a scan compares each watch’s country scope against facility records written since the analysis’s last recorded review and reports the watch as fired or clear. The manual watches cover changes no dataset here records (a strike, a cable cut, a market-share revision); they are standing instructions to the reviewer and are never reported clear. An analysis with no recorded review has no date to compare against, so none of its watches can be evaluated until a review is recorded.

Taiwan Strait: TSMC Disruption Cascade

  • New or edited Taiwan facility records: capacity, operator, or status change at a leading-edge site. (watched: TW)
  • New or edited facility records at the alternative foundries and packaging providers in the substitution assessment, whose capacity sets the estimated shortfall. (watched: US, KR, JP, CN)
  • A tier-1/tier-2 publication of company-level leading-edge foundry share, which would supersede the 2021-vintage CSET country aggregate the concentration input currently uses. (manual: no dataset here records this kind of change)

IRGC Missile Range vs. Regional Compute

  • New or edited facility records across the Gulf, Israel and Turkey, the facilities compared against the published missile ranges. (watched: AE, SA, BH, QA, KW, OM, IL, TR)
  • A regional strike, interception episode or air-defence deployment change that requires the incident history or defence context to be reviewed. (manual: no dataset here records this kind of change)

Abqaiq 2.0: Saudi Grid and Compute Co-Location

  • New or edited Saudi facility records, including any new data centre and the grid zone it is assigned to. (watched: SA)
  • A published change to Saudi transmission topology or substation assignment. A shared named substation is the strongest evidence class in the co-location table, so a reassignment changes which data-centre and petroleum pairs qualify. (manual: no dataset here records this kind of change)

Tokyo Earthquake: Memory and Materials Exposure

  • New or edited Japanese or Korean facility records: memory, wafer, materials or equipment sites. (watched: JP, KR)
  • A revision to published DRAM or HBM market share, the figures this analysis uses for the Korean producers’ share of world memory supply. (manual: no dataset here records this kind of change)

South China Sea: Cable Chokepoint Disruption

  • New or edited facility records in the cable-landing and hub regions the route analysis depends on. (watched: SG, HK, AE, EG, IN)
  • A cable cut, completed repair or new system entering service may change the routes available in a case. Review the affected-cable set and historical account when those conditions change. (manual: no dataset here records this kind of change)
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Choose a company and simulate a supply-chain disruption with the cascade engine.