Inputs to 2026-08

Scenarios

Five stress cases over the AI-compute supply chain.

Tokyo Earthquake: Memory and Materials Exposure

Disruption to Japanese wafer and equipment suppliers could affect semiconductor production beyond the damaged sites. These cases select locations for assumed disruption and compare the relevant suppliers’ market shares. The Korean finding examines how shortages of Japanese inputs could reach memory production as inventories deplete; that propagation is reasoned by hand because the graph lacks the input-dependency path to SK Hynix.

Supply Chain Exposure Analysis

8 Japanese and 5 Korean locations; 4 selected for this case. Site selection and severity are authored inputs. The circle illustrates a chosen radius; it does not calculate ground motion. Active: Nankai Trough megathrust (M8-9 class, modeled at M9.0)Compare three earthquake stress cases across 13 locations, including memory fabs, wafer plants and equipment-company headquarters. Each case selects its own sites; production losses and ground motion are not calculated. Active: Nankai Trough megathrust (M8-9 class, modeled at M9.0)

Choose scenario

Magnitude · Severity

The active M9 case selects 4 locations for assumed disruption. The supplier shares below show how concentrated the relevant markets are; they do not give the share of output produced at each site. Historical company reports can describe recovery in more detail: Shin-Etsu recorded partial operations at Shirakawa from 20 April 2011 and reported pre-earthquake capacity restored on 1 July.

Methodology →HERP long-term seismic hazard · Counterpoint Research HBM share + Omdia wafer share · USGS catalog

Active scenarioNankai Trough megathrust (M8-9 class, modeled at M9.0)

Concentration Analysis4 selected locations

Supplier shares and HHI for the selected markets, followed by the locations assigned to the active case.

Compound Scenarios3 multi-country

Authored cases that assume simultaneous disruption in Japan and Taiwan or South Korea.

Historical Outages3 historical events

Manufacturer reports of factory shutdowns and restarts, with a product-specific price observation from TrendForce.

Scenario Details3 scenarios

Chosen magnitude, radius, severity and site list, with separate probability-source context.

Methodology

Stored scenario settings, geographic assignments, market-share sources and the limits of the historical comparisons.

Open related supply-chain scenario

The engine runs the Japan-to-Korea coupling over the whole supplier–customer graph: it seeds the Japanese semiconductor-input cluster (Shin-Etsu, SUMCO, Tokyo Electron, Advantest, and the rest) and propagates the shock forward through recorded edges, reaching Samsung and the Korean supply chain. It does not reach SK Hynix by the input-dependency path this page’s fab-level model reasons about, because that dependency is not a recorded edge; nor does it hold the seismic-probability and HBM-qualification detail above.