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Scrutica
Inputs to 2026-08

Scenarios

Five stress cases over the AI-compute supply chain.

Tokyo Earthquake: Memory and Materials Exposure

An earthquake that interrupts Japanese wafer or equipment production could also affect memory fabs abroad. These cases pair selected disruption sites with supplier market shares to examine that exposure. The Korean assessment considers how shortages of Japanese inputs could affect production as inventories deplete; the available data give no inventory durations.

Supply Chain Exposure Analysis

8 Japanese and 5 Korean locations; 4 selected for this case. Site selection and severity are authored inputs. The circle illustrates a chosen radius; it does not calculate ground motion. Active: Nankai Trough megathrust (M8-9 class, modeled at M9.0)Compare three earthquake stress cases across 13 locations, including memory fabs, wafer plants and equipment-company headquarters. Each case selects its own sites; production losses and ground motion are not calculated. Active: Nankai Trough megathrust (M8-9 class, modeled at M9.0)

Choose scenario

Magnitude · Severity

The active M9 case selects 4 locations for assumed disruption. The supplier shares below show how concentrated the relevant markets are; they do not give the share of output produced at each site. Historical company reports can describe recovery in more detail: Shin-Etsu recorded partial operations at Shirakawa from 20 April 2011 and reported pre-earthquake capacity restored on 1 July.

Methodology →HERP long-term seismic hazard · Counterpoint Research HBM share + Omdia wafer share · USGS catalog
Active scenarioNankai Trough megathrust (M8-9 class, modeled at M9.0)

Supplier shares and HHI for the selected markets, followed by the locations assigned to the active case.

Supplier Shares and Market Concentration (HHI)

DRAM

HHI: 2,872
  • Samsung: 36% (South Korea)
  • SK Hynix: 32% (South Korea)
  • Micron: 22% (USA / Japan)
  • CXMT: 8% (China)
  • Nanya Technology: 2% (Taiwan)

TrendForce Q4 2024-Q4 2025 DRAM market share (revenue + bit-share basis); SemiAnalysis CXMT tracking · Tier 2 · estimated

NAND Flash

HHI: 1,968
  • Samsung: 33% (South Korea)
  • Kioxia / WD: 19% (Japan)
  • SK Hynix / Solidigm: 18% (South Korea / USA)
  • Micron: 13% (USA / Japan / Singapore)
  • YMTC: 5% (China)

TrendForce Q4 2024 NAND market share (revenue basis) · Tier 2 · estimated

HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)

HHI: 3,913
  • SK Hynix: 50% (South Korea)
  • Samsung: 33% (South Korea)
  • Micron: 18% (USA / Japan)

Counterpoint Research, Global DRAM and HBM market share, Q2 2026 revenue shares; Samsung’s share on the same series rose from 15% in Q2 2025 · Tier 2 · estimated

Silicon Wafers (300mm)

HHI: 2,009
  • Shin-Etsu: 30% (Japan)
  • SUMCO: 24% (Japan)
  • GlobalWafers: 17% (Taiwan)
  • Siltronic: 12% (Germany)
  • SK Siltron: 10% (South Korea)

Omdia silicon wafer market tracker 2024; Shin-Etsu/SUMCO annual reports · Tier 2 · estimated

Semiconductor Equipment (Coater/Developer)

HHI: 8,150
  • Tokyo Electron: 90% (Japan)
  • SUSS MicroTec: 5% (Germany)
  • Others: 5% (Various)

Omdia semiconductor equipment market tracker; Tokyo Electron Annual Report 2024 · Tier 2 · estimated

Semiconductor Test Equipment (Memory ATE)

HHI: 4,350
  • Advantest: 55% (Japan)
  • Teradyne: 35% (USA)
  • Others: 10% (Various)

Omdia ATE market tracker; Advantest Annual Report 2024 · Tier 2 · estimated

Selected Locations: Nankai Trough megathrust (M8-9 class, modeled at M9.0)

Authored cases that assume simultaneous disruption in Japan and Taiwan or South Korea.

Manufacturer reports of factory shutdowns and restarts, with a product-specific price observation from TrendForce.

Chosen magnitude, radius, severity and site list, with separate probability-source context.

Stored scenario settings, geographic assignments, market-share sources and the limits of the historical comparisons.

Open related supply-chain scenario

This run starts with Japanese semiconductor suppliers, including Shin-Etsu, SUMCO, Tokyo Electron and Advantest, then follows recorded customer relationships. Those paths reach Samsung; the graph has no Japanese-input supply path to SK Hynix. The run therefore covers only part of the Korean exposure assessed here, and includes none of the earthquake probabilities or the HBM-qualification detail in the sections above.