Concentration Monitor

Trajectory Assessment

ASML reported a €38.8 billion order backlog at the end of 2025 across its system business, and €7.4 billion of EUV bookings in the fourth quarter alone. It also recognised revenue for two High-NA systems in that quarter. High-NA extends ASML’s product range within the single-supplier EUV market represented here.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 10,000)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. All share coverage is represented.

Policy Implication

A single EUV scanner supplier makes access to its systems consequential for fabs that use EUV processes. ASML’s September 2024 licensing statement confirms that EUV sales require licences. The supplier share establishes commercial concentration; the relevant export rules and transaction determine whether a particular shipment can proceed.

Related policy sources

• SMIC designation, December 2020
• METI, August 2023, p. 2
• ASML 2025 annual report, p. 66

Trajectory Assessment

Ajinomoto describes ABF as the insulating film between wiring layers in package substrates. In its own materials-business interview, the company puts its share at roughly 95%; the figure is a supplier claim, without an independently verified market breakdown here. Intel’s July 2026 glass-substrate collaboration with Lens Technology concerns further development. The announcement does not report a commercial product shipment.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 9,050)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. 5% is in residual buckets, each squared as one supplier; splitting it lowers its contribution. HHI is an upper bound relative to splitting these buckets.

Policy Implication

The dependency assessed here is the dielectric film used inside a package substrate. A glass-core packaging announcement does not establish that the design replaces this film. Evaluating an alternative requires evidence about its insulating layers and qualification for the intended chip, before treating it as a second source.

Trajectory Assessment

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 attributes 99% of primary low-purity gallium production to China. The export restriction at issue is US-specific: MOFCOM Announcement 72/2025 suspends paragraph two of Announcement 46/2024 until 27 November 2026. That paragraph generally denies licences for relevant dual-use gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard-material exports to the United States. Its reinstatement would restrict US access; it would not remove Chinese output from the entire world market.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 9,802)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. 1% is in residual buckets, each squared as one supplier; splitting it lowers its contribution. HHI is an upper bound relative to splitting these buckets.

Policy Implication

The 99% input measures primary low-purity gallium production by country, so this HHI is not directly comparable with the company-based HHIs. Germanium is covered by the same suspended export provision but has a different supplier structure and is excluded from this HHI. The practical exposure depends on access to refining, inventories and alternative supplies as well as the announced licensing policy.

Trajectory Assessment

Lumentum demonstrated a 1.6T DR4 OSFP prototype at OFC in March 2026 using four 400G differential EML lasers. Its optical interface was 4×400 Gbps; the host electrical interface was 8×200 Gbps. A prototype demonstration establishes a technical milestone, without measuring available laser-chip production or the size of a supply shortfall.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 4,150)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. 15% is in residual buckets, each squared as one supplier; splitting it lowers its contribution. HHI is an upper bound relative to splitting these buckets.

Policy Implication

The estimates here concern EML laser chips inside transceivers. A shortage of qualified chips can limit module supply, but the effect on a cluster depends on its chosen network architecture and optical products. Neither the 55% supplier estimate nor the prototype announcement establishes that every capacity expansion falls short of demand.

Trajectory Assessment

The Q2 2026 vendor estimates used here put SK Hynix at ~50%, Samsung at ~33% and Micron at ~18%. SK Hynix and Samsung together account for ~83%; that is a supplier share, not a measurement of production physically located in South Korea. Micron broke ground on an HBM packaging facility in Singapore in January 2025, with operations planned for 2026 and substantial additional packaging capacity from 2027.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 3,913)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. All share coverage is represented.

Policy Implication

A disruption affecting one of the three suppliers could constrain accelerator production even where GPU fabrication continues. Assessing exposure to a peninsula-wide event requires the locations and capacity of the relevant fabs and packaging plants; the headquarters-based shares above cannot supply that estimate.

Related policy sources

• December 2024 rule, ECCN 3A090.c

Trajectory Assessment

TSMC’s March 2025 US expansion plan included two advanced-packaging facilities. The announcement establishes an intention to add packaging outside Taiwan, with no production-start date in that release. The supplier shares used here do not distinguish those planned sites from operating capacity, and cannot establish how much packaging will be available to a particular accelerator customer.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 4,658)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. All share coverage is represented.

Policy Implication

A logic fab outside Taiwan does not by itself provide packaging for its output. For a specific accelerator, the relevant questions are where the qualified packaging process runs, when additional capacity becomes available and whether the customer has secured access to it. Company market share cannot answer those questions.

Trajectory Assessment

KLA’s December 2025 quarterly filing identifies EUV adoption in logic and DRAM, including HBM, as a source of new process-control requirements. It also describes higher process-control intensity at 2nm and growth in advanced packaging. These observations explain demand for inspection and metrology; they do not validate a change in the 60% KLA share used here. Estimates covering different equipment segments cannot be combined into a market-share trend.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 4,038)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. 7% is in residual buckets, each squared as one supplier; splitting it lowers its contribution. HHI is an upper bound relative to splitting these buckets.

Policy Implication

KLA, Applied Materials and Onto Innovation account for 83% in these supplier estimates. Their headquarters do not establish the licensing treatment of every inspection tool. A control assessment must identify the equipment specification and intended transaction; the share table describes commercial concentration.

Related policy sources

• October 2022 rule
• METI, August 2023, p. 2
• Dutch government, January 2025

Trajectory Assessment

Synopsys reported that BIS rescinded the China restrictions communicated in its 29 May 2025 letter on 2 July 2025, and that it was restoring access to the affected products. BIS had separately introduced controls on qualifying GAAFET-design software in 2022. The supplier shares used here describe the estimated vendor structure, without measuring the commercial effect of either rule.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 2,696)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. 24% is in residual buckets, each squared as one supplier; splitting it lowers its contribution. HHI is an upper bound relative to splitting these buckets.

Policy Implication

Synopsys and Cadence account for ~62% in these supplier estimates; Siemens brings the combined share to ~76%. Restrictions on access to their tools can affect design work before a chip reaches fabrication. The May–July 2025 episode also shows that access restrictions can change within weeks.

Related policy sources

• December 2024 rule, §744.23(a)(2)(iii)
• Dutch measure, April 2025 version
• METI consultation, January 2025

Trajectory Assessment

Mitsui Chemicals began commercial EUV-pellicle production under an ASML licence in 2021 and announced facilities for carbon-nanotube pellicles in May 2024. Separately, DNP and imec’s March 2024 development announcement targeted mass production of next-generation EUV photomasks in fiscal 2027. These are different products within the lithography process; the editorial photomask shares scored here do not measure pellicle supply.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 2,250)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. 10% is in residual buckets, each squared as one supplier; splitting it lowers its contribution. HHI is an upper bound relative to splitting these buckets.

Policy Implication

EUV exposure depends on qualified masks and pellicles as well as the scanner. Mitsui manufactures pellicles under an ASML licence; that relationship cannot be inferred from the photomask supplier shares scored here. US controls already listed specified EUV mask blanks, pellicles and masks under ECCN 3B001.j, .l and .q in December 2024. The applicable licence requirements depend on the item and transaction.

Trajectory Assessment

The estimates used here assign 88% of supply to JSR, TOK, Shin-Etsu and Fujifilm, all Japanese-headquartered companies. Manufacturing locations differ: JSR announced final-stage metal-oxide-resist production in Korea, with operation planned for 2026, while TOK reported construction of a new photoresist building at Koriyama in August 2025. These investments expand incumbent suppliers; the company-share estimates do not measure how much production remains in Japan.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 2,114)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. 4% is in residual buckets, each squared as one supplier; splitting it lowers its contribution. HHI is an upper bound relative to splitting these buckets.

Policy Implication

Japan tightened licensing for photoresist exports to South Korea in 2019; the two governments agreed in March 2023 to restore the earlier permit system. The estimated 88% share here belongs to Japanese-headquartered suppliers. Exposure to a similar restriction depends on which products ship from Japan, so overseas production requires a separate assessment.

Trajectory Assessment

GlobalWafers opened its 300mm wafer facility in Sherman, Texas, in May 2025 and announced plans for additional phases. This expands manufacturing outside the supplier’s home country while keeping production within an incumbent firm. A stable supplier-share table can therefore coexist with a change in geographic exposure.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: 2,058)

Estimated shares are squared as published, without renormalizing rounding differences. 7% is in residual buckets, each squared as one supplier; splitting it lowers its contribution. HHI is an upper bound relative to splitting these buckets.

Policy Implication

Shin-Etsu and SUMCO are Japanese-headquartered suppliers; GlobalWafers is headquartered in Taiwan and operates the new Texas facility. These company shares cannot quantify the output exposed to an earthquake in Japan or a disruption in Taiwan. That calculation requires plant locations, qualified products and site capacity.

Trajectory Assessment

The UCIe Consortium now publishes specifications through version 3.0, including die-to-die links at 48 and 64 GT/s. The companies listed are advanced-packaging suppliers; none of the sources cited here gives supplier shares for UCIe interconnects, so this row has no Herfindahl.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: Unavailable)

Concentration unavailable: no supplier market shares are known.

Policy Implication

A common die-to-die interface can support interoperability between chiplets. Manufacturing still requires a suitable packaging process and available capacity.

Trajectory Assessment

DeCarlo and Goodman’s April 2022 USITC briefing reported Ukraine at roughly half of global neon supply and nearly all US imports of semiconductor-grade neon. It also reported that Cryoin and Ingas had stopped production in March 2022. Air Liquide announced a new Japanese air-separation unit with neon output in February 2025. These sources document disruption and additional supply; neither gives current supplier shares, so this row has no Herfindahl.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: Unavailable)

Concentration unavailable: no supplier market shares are known.

Policy Implication

Neon is a buffer and carrier gas in DUV excimer-laser mixtures. Supply substitution requires qualified gas: the 2022 USITC briefing reported qualification periods of 3–18 months, repeated when a manufacturer changes source. Additional raw-gas capacity therefore does not by itself establish an immediately usable replacement for a fab.

Trajectory Assessment

FERC’s December 2025 PJM order required clearer terms for loads co-located with generation, including an interim non-firm service while network upgrades are completed. The order addresses how a large load receives electricity. Generation-interconnection queue counts measure a different process and cannot be read as the number of data centers waiting for power. The operators listed are not competing suppliers a developer can choose between at one location.

Supplier Concentration (HHI: Unavailable)

Concentration unavailable: no supplier market shares are known.

Policy Implication

For a proposed campus, the useful evidence is its available electrical service: when it starts, how much load it permits and whether it can be curtailed. A site announcement or a nearby generation project does not supply those terms.