Chokepoint Anatomy

moderate criticality (editorial)

hardware consumers in this diagram

context: Epoch (T2 est.) · Menlo survey (T3)

No supplier HHI: AI labs appear here as hardware consumers; model and API markets are outside this measure. Separate context figures: US-enterprise LLM API spend Anthropic 40 / OpenAI 27 / Google 21 (Menlo Ventures survey n=495, Nov 2025, tier 3); OpenAI ~10–15% of world operational AI compute and top-five labs combined <50% at end-2025 (Epoch AI estimate, tier 2).

No supplier HHI is calculated for AI labs, which appear here as consumers of the hardware supply chain. Epoch AI (May 2026 estimate): OpenAI ~10–15% of world operational AI compute; top-five labs combined <50%.

moderate criticality (editorial)

cloud infra revenue shares · Q4 2025

Synergy Research · tier 2 · ~37% unattributed

LOWER BOUND (top-3 only): 28² + 21² + 14² = 1,421 from Synergy Research Group Q4 2025 worldwide cloud infrastructure revenue shares (tier 2). The remaining ~37% (Oracle, CoreWeave, Alibaba, long tail) is unattributed — the true HHI is strictly higher.

Cloud infrastructure services: AWS 28% / Azure 21% / GCP 14% worldwide (Synergy Research Group, Q4 2025, tier 2). Top-3 HHI ≥ 1,421 — a lower bound: the remaining ~37% (Oracle, CoreWeave, Alibaba, long tail) is unattributed, so the true HHI is higher.

high criticality (editorial)

NVIDIA ~80–85% merchant accel. · tier-3 band

denominator-sensitive — see methodology

No HHI at tier-1/2. Share band: NVIDIA ~80–85% of merchant AI accelerators (tier-3 analyst band, 2025). Including custom accelerators such as TPU and Trainium changes the market denominator. The OECD citation is indirect, through Farooque’s report of an analyst estimate (tier 3); HHI calculations here use only tier-1/2 shares.

Merchant AI accelerators: NVIDIA ~80–85% — a tier-3 analyst band whose scope depends on which custom accelerators are included. This dataset lacks qualifying tier-1/2 shares, so no HHI is calculated for this layer.

high criticality (editorial)

Synopsys ~32 / Cadence ~30 / Siemens ~14 · 2024 · tier 3

10-K revenue ÷ tier-3 market-size estimates

Estimated EDA market shares (2024): Synopsys ~32% (FY2024 10-K revenue $6.13B against tier-3 total-market estimates), Cadence ~30% (FY2024 10-K, 71% EDA segment), Siemens EDA ~14% (industry estimate, no named source). These estimates total ~76% of the market. No HHI is shown because they do not meet this chart’s tier-1/2 source requirement.

US export controls can apply to EDA software and its foreign direct products. Applicability depends on the product and destination, end-user or end-use criteria in 15 CFR 734.9.

high criticality (editorial)

CoWoS capacity: 75K → ~130K wpm, ’25→’26

TrendForce · tier 2 · capacity ≠ share

No qualifying tier-1/2 supplier shares for advanced packaging (CoWoS) in this dataset; HHI sourced-unavailable. Capacity context (TrendForce, tier 2): ~75K wafers/month end-2025 → ~130K projected end-2026; TSMC dominant with ASE (SPIL) and Amkor as overflow. Capacity is not a market share.

CoWoS capacity (TrendForce, tier 2): TSMC ~75K wafers/month (end 2025) → ~130K projected (end 2026); ASE (SPIL) and Amkor absorb overflow. Capacity ≠ market share — qualifying tier-1/2 shares are absent from this dataset, so packaging HHI is sourced-unavailable.

high criticality (editorial)

HBM revenue shares 50/33/18 · Q2 2026

Counterpoint Research · tier 2

Measured: 50² + 33² + 18² = 3,913 from Counterpoint Research Q2 2026 HBM revenue shares (SK Hynix / Samsung / Micron — all suppliers named; tier 2, via Semiecosystem). Samsung recovered 15% → 33% Q2→Q3 2025 on HBM3E qualification; refresh on Q4 publication.

HBM revenue shares: SK Hynix ~50%, Samsung ~33%, Micron ~18% (Q2 2026, Counterpoint Research, tier 2) — HHI 3,913 = 50² + 33² + 18². Published rounded shares total 101%; HHI is approximate.

extreme criticality (editorial)

foundry revenue, top-6 named · FY2025

TrendForce · tier 2 · adv-node co. HHI: none

Named-share lower bound: 69.9² + 7.2² + 5.32² + 4.35² + 3.87² + 2.6² ≈ 5,007, recomputed in code from TrendForce FY2025 foundry revenue shares (tier 2, via Taipei Times 2026-03-14). Advanced node: Taiwan ~92% of leading-edge pure-play foundry manufacturing (CSET/VerWey 2021, country-level); the cited passage gives no company breakdown, and no company-level advanced-node HHI is calculated here.

Overall foundry revenue FY2025 (TrendForce, tier 2): TSMC 69.9 / Samsung 7.2 / SMIC 5.32 / UMC 4.35 / GF 3.87 / Hua Hong 2.6 — named-share HHI 5,007 (lower bound). Advanced node: Taiwan ~92% of leading-edge pure-play foundry manufacturing (CSET/VerWey 2021) — a country-level figure; the cited passage gives no company breakdown.

extreme criticality (editorial)

ASML 100% of EUV systems · 2025 · tier 1

ASML AR + 6-K · broader equip: unavailable

EUV sub-layer (tier 1): ASML 100% of EUV lithography systems → HHI 10,000, the ceiling of the scale. Source: ASML 2025 Annual Report, financial-performance section + Q4-2025 investor presentation (Form 6-K, Jan 28, 2026) (48 EUV systems recognized 2025, 4 EXE + 44 NXE; EUV system sales +39% to €11.6B). This HHI covers EUV lithography only. No HHI is available here for the broader wafer-fab equipment market.

EUV lithography: 100% ASML — HHI 10,000, tier 1 (ASML 2025 Annual Report, financial-performance section + Q4-2025 investor presentation (Form 6-K, Jan 28, 2026)). Broader wafer-fab equipment market (deposition, etch, metrology): no sourced HHI.

high criticality (editorial)

wafers: supplier shares unavailable here

Japan ~56% of wafers · CSET 2024 · tier 2

Sourced-unavailable: this dataset lacks qualifying supplier shares for silicon wafers, photoresists and specialty chemicals. Country-level context: Japan ~56% of global silicon wafers (CSET TechInsights 2024, tier 2).

Silicon wafers: Japan ~56% COUNTRY-level (CSET TechInsights 2024, tier 2). Per-supplier shares: sourced-unavailable — the dataset lacks qualifying supplier shares for a wafer HHI. Photoresist/specialty chemicals: sourced-unavailable.