Data 2026-03

Scenarios

Five stress cases over the AI-compute supply chain, each dated by when it was last reviewed and by the age of its newest input.

IRGC Missile Range vs. Regional Compute

Reviewed 2026-07-18Newest input 2026-03Runs against the cascade engine

Reviewed at the A5 keep-with-currency ruling (overhaul v2, 2026-07-18), which made the review commitment a condition of the page surviving. Next review due 2026-09-01 (a 45-day cadence). The propagation figures on this page come from a live run against the supply-chain graph; the threat and capacity analysis around them is human-authored and sourced individually. Newest input dated from IISS March 2026 air-defence assessment and the March 2026 AWS me-central-1 strike reporting; newest timeline entry date '2026-03-01' — src/lib/data/iran-threat-data.ts. Review state for all five analyses is on the index.

Maps the physical exposure of sovereign AI infrastructure across the Gulf to Iranian ballistic and cruise-missile systems — published range envelopes and regional air-defence installations (CSIS, IISS) read against verified facility locations.

Exposure Analysis

Composite threat scoring from CSIS missile specs (14 systems), IISS air defense data, and empirical CEP from Oct 2024 satellite imagery. 17 facilities in range, 5 critical, 11 high. Launch origin: Khorramabad (Imam Ali Base)Which Gulf data centers, cloud regions, and AI training facilities are within range of Iranian missile systems, and how defended are they? 17 facilities across 6 countries assessed. Launch origin: Khorramabad (Imam Ali Base)

Choose launch origin

Missile Class

Iranian missiles launched from Khorramabad (Imam Ali Base) put 17 regional facilities within strike range across 6 countries, including 15 cloud regions. The October 2024 Nevatim strikes demonstrated 800–900 m fleet-wide CEP (Eveleth/CNA Corp satellite imagery analysis; ~500 m only under assumptions extremely favourable to Iran). At that accuracy the relevant threat model for fixed infrastructure is saturation barrages, not single precision shots.

Methodology →CSIS Missile Threat Project · IISS Military Balance · CNA Corp 2024 satellite analysis

Strike Simulation7-phase strike walk-through (baseline → launch → midcourse → terminal → impact → cascade) with supply-chain propagation viz.7 phases · cascade auto-runs

Facilities at RiskPer-facility composite threat score: distance from launch site, defense vulnerability, targeting likelihood, strategic value.17 in range · 5 critical · 11 high

Conflict TimelineStrike-by-strike record of Iran ↔ Israel exchanges with intercept rates and the data-center incidents most likely to recur.4 events

Failover MapFor a selected at-risk facility: nearest cloud regions ranked by geographic distance, with each candidate's own Iran-range status flagged.

Methodology4-factor threat scoring (proximity, defense gap, targeting likelihood, strategic value) + sources (CSIS, IISS, CRS, satellite analysis).

Rerun this disruption in the engine

The supply-chain cascade above already runs at full density — each simulated strike is a real engine run against the struck facility’s owner. This link opens that same run in the standalone engine, where you can hold it beside another organization or scenario and step through the temporal view. It carries the missile-exposure and air-defense layer no further; that analysis lives on this page. (The seed shown is Alphabet, a representative Gulf-region operator; the strike panel above lets you pick any in-range facility.)