Checked 2026-08-13 · unchanged since 2025-11-10RSS

Export Controls

The restrictions in force, the entities they name, and their measured effect on trade.

20 of 26 profiled countries hold full or allied access; 4 are embargoed.

Each country’s legal access profile: license requirements per chip–country pair, with access-tier classification. The 26 profiles are classifications derived from the rules rather than a census: each country’s tier follows its country-group placement and license posture, and the derivation was last reviewed against the rule set on July 17, 2026. Where a rule moved a country between tiers, its citation sits on that country’s own entry in the register below.

Country profiles, in restriction order — 6 Full Access · 14 U.S.-Allied (Full Access) · 1 Restricted · 1 Heavily Restricted · 4 Embargoed

Accelerators columned, read from the United States profile. The classifications were last reviewed against the rule set on July 17, 2026.

156

Chip–country cells drawn — 67 available, 4 case-by-case, 16 under a presumption of denial, 69 not enumerated by that profile.

Profiles whose frontier-access ratio falls below 1.00; 1 profile states no ratio at all. The bases differ row to row, so the column is read per row, not as a ranking.

Plate III. License posture per chip–country pair under the applicable rules as of July 17, 2026: solid = available, or license-free under an exception; half = case-by-case review; struck = presumption of denial or prohibition; dot = the chip is not enumerated in that country’s profile. Columns are the 6 accelerators enumerated in the United States profile, and the figure beneath each column head is the number of profiles that enumerate it — 3 of the 6 are carried by fewer than half the profiles, so those columns are thin coverage rather than denial. The right margin counts the 16 further chips that 3 profiles enumerate beyond the columns; domestic production is never a column, and each profile’s own account of it sits on its entry in the register below. The frontier-access figure is each profile’s stated ratio of accessible to frontier capability, and its basis is not uniform — some rows measure a capability gap between the best accessible chip and the frontier, others the friction of case-by-case licensing — so it carries its basis on hover and is read row by row. Every profile outside the embargoed tier carries a sovereign-AI program and the 4 embargoed carry none, which the tier grouping already shows, so no column repeats it; each program is linked from its entry in the register.

Tier derivationAccess tiers derive from the Export Administration Regulations, Wassenaar Arrangement parameters, and country-specific licensing policies. The full and allied tiers reflect no material restriction on AI-accelerator imports; restricted through embargoed reflect escalating denial of advanced chips above the ECCN thresholds.

The profiles

26 of 26 profiles

Full Access · 6

Japan4 available

Full access as US ally. Major semiconductor equipment producer with own export controls.

Per-chip status · 4

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —
MI300XAvailable: —

Regulatory notes

Aligned export controls on 23 equipment categories since July 2023
Tokyo Electron and other SME makers are Japanese-headquartered

Domestic production

Rapidus (2nm targeting 2027, IBM partnership), Renesas, Kioxia

Frontier access1.00

Full import access. Simplified Wassenaar licensing for exports.

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 JP. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

Netherlands3 available

Full access. Home to ASML (sole EUV source). Own export controls on lithography equipment.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Regulatory notes

DUV license requirement effective Sept 7, 2024
ASML must obtain licenses to service previously sold restricted systems in China

Domestic production

ASML (EUV/DUV lithography — equipment, not chips). NXP Semiconductors (automotive/IoT).

Frontier access1.00

Full import access. Home to ASML.

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 NL. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

South Korea4 available

Full access. Home to SK Hynix (~57% HBM) and Samsung (~22% HBM) (Q3 2025, Counterpoint Research).

Per-chip status · 4

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —
MI300XAvailable: —

Regulatory notes

SK Hynix completed HBM4 development, mass production Q1-Q2 2026
Samsung targeting HBM4 qualification Q1-Q2 2026

Domestic production

Samsung (foundry + memory), SK Hynix (HBM leader). Both are major supply chain nodes.

Frontier access1.00

US ally with full import access

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 KR. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

Taiwan3 available

Full access. Home to TSMC, which manufactures the majority of advanced AI chips.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Regulatory notes

AI Basic Act passed December 2025; implementation funding stalled in Legislative Yuan as of March 2026
TSMC subject to US extraterritorial controls on chip exports to China

Domestic production

TSMC: world's most advanced foundry (3nm, 2nm). Taiwan holds ~92% of leading-edge pure-play foundry manufacturing (CSET 2021, country-level; includes UMC and PSMC).

Frontier access1.00

Full import access. TSMC fabricates the chips domestically.

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 TW. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

United Kingdom5 available

Full access as US ally. No AI chip import constraints.

Per-chip status · 5

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —
MI300XAvailable: —
MI325XAvailable: —

Regulatory notes

AI Safety Institute established 2023 — voluntary testing framework for frontier models
Sovereign AI Unit (£500M venture fund) launching April 2026

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 GB. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

United States6 available

Full access to all AI chips. Domestic production expanding under CHIPS Act.

Per-chip status · 6

A100Available: —
H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —
MI300XAvailable: —
MI325XAvailable: —

Regulatory notes

CHIPS Act: $52.7B for domestic semiconductor manufacturing
TSMC Arizona Phase 1 (4nm) in mass production

Domestic production

TSMC Arizona (4nm mass production), Intel foundry, GlobalFoundries (mature nodes)

Frontier access1.00

Full access to all commercially available AI accelerators

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 US. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

U.S.-Allied (Full Access) · 14

Australia3 available

Full access as Five Eyes/AUKUS partner.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 AU. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

Brazil3 available

Full access. Sovereign AI program uses credit instruments rather than direct GPU procurement.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 BR. Source authority: tier 2 (research database). Sovereign AI program.

Canada3 available

Full access as Five Eyes partner. Growing sovereign AI investment (C$925.6M, 5-year commitment).

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Regulatory notes

NVIDIA confirmed Canada as primary sovereign AI customer

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 CA. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

France3 available

Full access as US/EU ally. Major sovereign AI program.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Regulatory notes

NVIDIA confirmed France as primary sovereign AI customer

Domestic production

STMicroelectronics (mature/specialty nodes, not AI logic)

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 FR. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

Germany3 available

Full access as EU member and US ally. No AI chip import constraints.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Regulatory notes

EU Chips Act participant
Subject to EU AI Act GPAI obligations for model developers

Domestic production

Infineon (power semiconductors, not AI logic). TSMC considering European fab.

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 DE. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

India3 available

Allied tier (Quad partner). Unrestricted chip access; growing domestic AI infrastructure investment.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Domestic production

No advanced foundry. Tata Electronics fab under construction (legacy nodes).

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 IN. Source authority: tier 2 (research database). Sovereign AI program.

Indonesia3 available

Full access. Growing cloud infrastructure from hyperscalers.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Regulatory notes

Danantara SWF ($20B initial) has announced AI investment partnerships; if these include Chinese technology vendors, BIS re-export exposure would apply under EAR Part 734

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 ID. Source authority: tier 2 (research database). Sovereign AI program.

Israel3 available

Full access. NVIDIA and Intel have major R&D/design centers. Chip design hub.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Domestic production

Intel Fab 28 (legacy). Tower Semiconductor (specialty). Major chip design talent.

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 IL. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

Italy3 available

Full access as EU/NATO member.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Domestic production

STMicroelectronics (shared with France, mature/specialty nodes)

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 IT. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

Malaysia3 available

Full access. Growing as cloud compute hub. ByteDance Blackwell cluster hosted here.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Regulatory notes

ByteDance secured 36K Blackwell GPU cluster through Malaysia cloud operator (NVIDIA confirmed compliant)

Domestic production

Intel Penang (assembly/test). Backend semiconductor packaging.

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 MY. Source authority: tier 2 (research database). Sovereign AI program.

Norway3 available

Full access as NATO member. Sovereign AI program focused on Nordic language models.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Regulatory notes

EEA member — EU AI Act being incorporated via EEA Agreement; Norwegian implementation act drafted June 2025, expected in force August 2026
Nkom designated as national coordinating supervisory authority for AI Act

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 NO. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

Singapore3 available

Full access. Strong US alignment on technology policy.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Regulatory notes

NVIDIA confirmed Singapore as primary sovereign AI customer

Domestic production

GlobalFoundries fab (mature nodes)

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 SG. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

Sweden3 available

Full access as EU/NATO member.

Per-chip status · 3

H100Available: —
H200Available: —
B200Available: —

Regulatory notes

EU AI Act compliance requirements for GPAI model developers
EU Chips Act participant

Domestic production

Ericsson (telecom chips, not AI)

Frontier access1.00

Full import access — no export control constraints from any regime

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 SE. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

United Arab Emirates4 available

Country Group A:5 since July 10, 2026 (91 FR 43034): license-free AI-chip exports to the UAE Government and supplement-no.-8 approved entities (G42/Core42 plus UAE subsidiaries of eight named US AI companies), with BIS Export Control Officer monitoring in-country.

Per-chip status · 4

H100Available: License-free to supplement-no.-8 approved entities since July 10, 2026 (91 FR 43034). G42/Core42 held significant H100 inventory before the reclassification.
H200Available: License-free to supplement-no.-8 approved entities since July 10, 2026 (91 FR 43034); previously case-by-case.
B200Available: Advanced computing items license-free to supplement-no.-8 approved entities since July 10, 2026 (91 FR 43034) — resolves the pre-rule asymmetry where GB300 (Blackwell Ultra) was cleared via bespoke Nov 20 2025 license while B200 stayed restricted in category. Exports to UAE entities NOT on the approved list still require licenses.
B300Available: GB300 systems: up to 35,000 GB300-class chips cumulative to G42 authorized under bespoke Nov 20 2025 BIS license (Intergovernmental Assurance Agreement); superseded in mechanism by license-free approved-entity treatment effective July 10, 2026 (91 FR 43034).

Known workarounds

Third-party · high effectiveness

HISTORICAL (pre-A:5 pathway, superseded July 10, 2026): G42 partnership with Microsoft — divested Chinese tech holdings in 2024 as precondition; expanded into Microsoft cumulative AI infrastructure pledge of $15.2B through 2029

Example: Microsoft $15.2B cumulative pledge through 2029 (subsumes prior $1.5B Apr 2024 G42 equity + $4.6B+ datacenter capex + $1.2B+ local OpEx + forward pledges); G42 cleared via Nov 20 2025 BIS license to receive up to 35,000 GB300-class chips cumulative under Intergovernmental Assurance Agreement — the bespoke-license channel the July 2026 A:5 reclassification replaced with standing license-free treatment

Source: Microsoft On The Issues (Nov 3 2025); BIS Nov 20 2025 export-license approval; Microsoft EMEA (Nov 5 2025); 91 FR 43034 (July 2026 supersession)

Regulatory notes

Moved from Country Groups D:3/D:4 to A:5 effective July 10, 2026 — BIS final rule "Enhanced Favorable Treatment for the United Arab Emirates Under the Export Administration Regulations", 91 FR 43034 (doc 2026-14132, published July 14, 2026).
License-free advanced computing items (AI chips and servers) where the ultimate consignee and all end users are approved entities in supplement no. 8 to part 740: UAE Government agencies (incl. Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces), G42 (Group 42 Holding Ltd), Core42, and UAE subsidiaries of Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, and X.AI.
G42/Core42 authorization auto-expires April 6, 2027 absent subsequent BIS notice. BIS maintains an Export Control Officer presence in the UAE for end-use monitoring.
Implements the May 2025 US-UAE AI Cooperation framework; BIS ties the treatment to UAE matching-investment commitments in US AI digital infrastructure buildout.
Pre-A:5 history: G42 divested Chinese tech holdings as condition of Microsoft investment (2024); Nov 20 2025 bespoke BIS license authorized up to 35,000 GB300-class chips cumulative to G42 under an Intergovernmental Assurance Agreement while B200 remained restricted in category.

Frontier access0.95

Frontier chips including Blackwell-class are license-free to supplement-no.-8 approved entities (UAE Government agencies, G42/Core42, UAE subsidiaries of Amazon/Apple/Google/Meta/Microsoft/OpenAI/Oracle/X.AI) effective July 10, 2026 (91 FR 43034). Per-chip performance gap ~0 for approved entities. Ratio discounts for the approved-entity gate (non-listed UAE entities still require licenses) and the conditionality of the G42/Core42 authorization (auto-expires April 6, 2027 absent BIS renewal) — friction, not capability gap. (is_estimated: true; access facts authority tier 1, ratio is editorial)

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 AE. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing). Sovereign AI program.

Restricted · 1

Saudi Arabia3 case-by-case · 1 restricted

Some access via partnerships but subject to conditions. AI Diffusion Rule (rescinded) would have placed SA in Tier 2.

Per-chip status · 4

H100Case-by-case review: Available via cloud partners. Direct procurement unclear post-rescission.
H200Case-by-case review: —
B200Restricted: ANALYTICAL ANOMALY: Blackwell-class formally restricted under current BIS framework, but GB300 (Blackwell Ultra, more capable than B200) cleared via bespoke Nov 20 2025 Commerce Department license authorizing up to 35,000 GB300-class chips cumulative to HUMAIN under an Intergovernmental Assurance Agreement (Phase 1 of 18,000 GB300 delivered May 2025). The asymmetry reflects chip-specific licensing under the rescinded AI Diffusion Rule replacement framework rather than category-wide Blackwell allowance.
B300Case-by-case review: GB300 systems: Phase 1 of 18,000 operational at HUMAIN (May 2025; NVIDIA-HUMAIN partnership). Nov 20 2025 BIS license authorizes up to 35,000 GB300-class chips cumulative to HUMAIN under Intergovernmental Assurance Agreement. End-use monitoring + KYC + China-shipment caps mandated.

Known workarounds

Cloud routing · high effectiveness

Access frontier compute via cloud partnerships with US hyperscalers

Example: Phase 1: 18,000 GB300 delivered to HUMAIN (confirmed, May 2025); 600K-GPU three-year target announced (HUMAIN press, May 2025) but not yet contracted; 35K GB300-class cumulative formally authorized to HUMAIN under Nov 20 2025 BIS license

Source: NVIDIA-HUMAIN press release (May 2025); BIS Nov 20 2025 export-license approval (Commerce Department); HUMAIN/PRNewswire 600K announcement

Regulatory notes

Rescinded AI Diffusion Rule would have placed in Tier 2 (capped access)
No formal replacement framework. Export licensing handled chip-specific case-by-case (e.g., Nov 20 2025 GB300 license to HUMAIN).
Phase 1: 18,000 GB300 delivered to HUMAIN (May 2025); 600K three-year target is announced ambition, not contracted purchase order; Nov 20 2025 BIS license authorizes up to 35,000 GB300-class cumulative.
Intergovernmental Assurance Agreement (Nov 2025) mandates end-use monitoring, KYC, and prohibited end-use restrictions; non-extension to B200 leaves Blackwell-class restricted in category despite GB300 (Blackwell Ultra) clearance.

Frontier access0.95

GB300 confirmed delivery (18,000 Phase 1 to HUMAIN, May 2025); SDAIA 500+ H100 operational; KAUST 3,000+ GPUs. Frontier hardware accessible with case-by-case export approval friction (Nov 20 2025 BIS license cleared up to 35,000 GB300 cumulative to HUMAIN). Per-chip performance gap ~0 (GB300 is frontier). Ratio reflects access friction, not capability gap. (is_estimated: true, authority tier 3 — delivery confirmed via NVIDIA press release but aggregate capacity unverified; 600K three-year HUMAIN ambition is announced not contracted)

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 SA. Source authority: tier 3 (press/analyst report). Sovereign AI program.

Heavily Restricted · 1

China4 available · 2 case-by-case · 13 restricted · 1 unclassified

Most advanced chips denied. H200/MI325X shifted from presumption of denial to case-by-case review (Jan 15, 2026). Blackwell-class (B200/B300) and Rubin-class strictly prohibited. Domestic production (SMIC 7nm via DUV) partially fills gap — Ascend 910C is now the primary domestic AI accelerator. BIS declared Huawei Ascend deployment violates export rules (May 2025).

Per-chip status · 20

A100Restricted: Restricted since Oct 2022 (87 FR 62186)
A800Restricted: Restricted since Oct 2023 (88 FR 73458)
H100Restricted: Restricted since Oct 2022
H800 SXM5Restricted: Restricted since Oct 2023. Chinese OEM channel only — no public NVIDIA datasheet.
H800 PCIeRestricted: Restricted since Oct 2023. 80GB HBM2e, 2 TB/s, 350W, NVLink Bridge 400 GB/s per Lenovo lp1814.
H200Case-by-case review: Case-by-case review since Jan 15, 2026 (FR doc 2026-00789). Six conditions: (1) commercial availability, (2) supply sufficiency, (3) aggregate China/Macau shipments ≤50% of US customer shipments, (4) prohibited end-use restrictions, (5) KYC customer due diligence, (6) third-party US lab performance/security testing.
B200Restricted: Exceeds TPP 21,000 and DRAM BW 6,500 GB/s. No case-by-case pathway for Blackwell-class.
B300Restricted: Blackwell Ultra. Exceeds all BIS thresholds (ECCN 3A090/4A090).
R100 (Rubin)Restricted: Will exceed all current thresholds. 50 PFLOPS FP4, TSMC 3nm, HBM4.
R200 (Rubin)Restricted: 50 PFLOPS FP4, 288GB HBM4, 22 TB/s. Exceeds all thresholds by wide margin.
B30AUnclassified: Designed to fall below BIS thresholds; no formal BIS ruling as of Q3 2025. Approval pending.
MI300XRestricted: Exceeds compute and memory thresholds
MI325XCase-by-case review: Case-by-case review since Jan 15, 2026 (FR doc 2026-00789). Same six conditions as H200.
MI350XRestricted: 288GB HBM3E, 8 TB/s bandwidth exceeds DRAM BW threshold (6,500 GB/s).
MI355XRestricted: CDNA 4. 10.1 PFLOPS FP8 dense / 20.1 PFLOPS FP4 per AMD brochure, 288GB HBM3E, 8 TB/s — exceeds DRAM BW threshold.
MI400Restricted: CDNA 5. 20 PFLOPs FP8, 432GB HBM4 — exceeds all thresholds.
Ascend 910BAvailable: Domestic Huawei chip on SMIC 7nm. ~256 FP16 TFLOPS. Being superseded by 910C.
Ascend 910CAvailable: Primary domestic AI accelerator. ~780 BF16 TFLOPS (~60% H100 inference per DeepSeek). CloudMatrix 384: 300 PFLOPS BF16. 2026 target: ~600K units. BIS declared Ascend deployment violates export rules (May 2025).
Ascend 910DAvailable: 5nm, 4-die packaging. Customer trials April-May 2025. Mass production Q2-Q3 2026. Designed to compete with Blackwell.
Ascend 920Available: 900 BF16 TFLOPS. SMIC 6nm-class. H2 2025 launch. Positioned as H20 replacement after April 2025 ban.

Known workarounds

Domestic production · medium effectiveness

Huawei Ascend 910C is now the primary domestic AI accelerator, manufactured by SMIC on 7nm process

Example: Ascend 910C: ~780 BF16 TFLOPS (~60% H100 inference per DeepSeek). CloudMatrix 384 system: 384x 910C, 300 PFLOPS BF16 — roughly 2x GB200 NVL72 throughput but 4.1x power draw. 2026 target: ~600K units.

Source: DeepSeek research / Tom's Hardware (authority tier 2)

Cloud routing · medium effectiveness

Access frontier compute via cloud providers in compliant jurisdictions

Example: ByteDance secured 36K Blackwell GPU cluster through Malaysia cloud operator

Source: Tom's Hardware; NVIDIA confirmation of export compliance

Compliant variant · medium effectiveness

NVIDIA developing B30A Blackwell variant designed to clear export thresholds

Example: B30A: ~50% of B300 performance per TrendForce. Samples reportedly Sept 2025.

Source: TrendForce (Aug 2025)

Stockpile · low effectiveness

Pre-controls stockpiling of A100/H100 chips

Example: Chinese companies stockpiled chips ahead of Oct 2022 export controls

Source: Press reports (unverified)

Regulatory notes

Subject to Oct 2022 (87 FR 62186), Oct 2023 (88 FR 73458), Dec 2024 rules
H200/MI325X: shifted from presumption of denial to case-by-case Jan 15, 2026 (conditions: ≤50% volume, compliance cert, 3rd-party testing)
Blackwell-class (B200/B300/GB200): fully restricted — exceeds TPP 21,000 and DRAM BW 6,500 GB/s thresholds
Rubin-class (R100/R200): will exceed all thresholds — strictly prohibited
BIS Entity List: 80+ entities added March 2025 (AI/supercomputer/quantum); 32 entities added Sept 2025
BIS declared deploying Huawei Ascend chips violates US export rules (May 2025)
SMIC on BIS Entity List since Dec 2020 — restricted from EUV and sub-10nm equipment
EUV: controlled under all three regimes (US, Netherlands, Japan)
Ascend 910C production target ~600K units in 2026 (is_estimated: true, authority tier 3). Binding constraint: HBM supply.
Epoch AI: US ~75% of global GPU cluster performance, China ~15% — but covers only ~2% of China-destined NVIDIA chips
RAND: "tenfold advantage" (10:1) — includes estimated untracked stockpiles

Domestic production

SMIC: 7nm via DUV multi-patterning (~30K wafers/month as of Q2 2025, up from 10-20K in 2024; targeting ~60K by end 2026). No EUV access. 80% chip self-sufficiency target by 2030. Ascend 910C is primary domestic AI chip (~600K units targeted 2026). Binding constraints: HBM supply (from SK Hynix/Samsung), lithography (no domestic EUV), advanced packaging (no domestic CoWoS equivalent at scale). (Source: TrendForce Aug 2025, authority tier 2-3)

Frontier access0.35

Single-chip metric: best domestic chip (Ascend 910C, ~780 BF16 TFLOPS per DeepSeek research, authority tier 2) vs frontier (B200, 2,250 BF16 TFLOPS dense, Tensor Core without sparsity) = 780/2250 ≈ 0.35. AGGREGATE ESTIMATES DIVERGE: Epoch AI reports US holds ~75% of global GPU cluster performance vs China ~15% (5:1 ratio), but explicitly acknowledges covering only ~2% of China-destined NVIDIA chips. RAND estimates a "tenfold advantage" (10:1) including untracked stockpiles. The contradiction is real: Epoch measures tracked clusters (undercounts China), RAND includes estimated stockpiles (which would overstate the US advantage if stockpile estimates are high). System-level comparison: CloudMatrix 384 (384x 910C) = 300 PFLOPS BF16, roughly 2x GB200 NVL72 throughput but at 4.1x the power draw — China can partially compensate with brute-force scaling at massive efficiency penalties.

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 CN. Source authority: tier 2 (research database). Sovereign AI program.

Embargoed · 4

Belarus2 restricted

Sanctioned alongside Russia since 2022. No AI chip access.

Per-chip status · 2

H100Restricted: Embargoed
B200Restricted: Embargoed

Known workarounds

Third-party · low effectiveness

Potential access via Russia or Chinese intermediaries under Belarus-Russia Union State

Example: Belarus-Russia Union State facilitates technology sharing; no verified AI chip transfer documented

Source: Analytical inference (authority tier 4)

Regulatory notes

Subject to US and EU sanctions since 2022 (aligned with Russia sanctions)

Frontier access0.00

Sanctioned alongside Russia — no AI chip access, no domestic semiconductor capability.

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 BY. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing).

Iran2 restricted

Comprehensive US, EU, and allied sanctions. No AI chip access.

Per-chip status · 2

H100Restricted: Embargoed
B200Restricted: Embargoed

Known workarounds

Third-party · low effectiveness

Documented sanctions evasion via intermediary countries (BIS enforcement cases)

Example: BIS enforcement cases document chip transiting through UAE, Turkey, and Central Asian intermediaries

Source: BIS enforcement actions (authority tier 1)

Domestic production · low effectiveness

Chinese hardware alternatives via Iran-China technology partnerships

Example: Huawei Ascend chips are a candidate non-US compute source; no verified Iranian procurement documented

Source: Press reports (unverified, authority tier 4)

Regulatory notes

Subject to comprehensive US, EU, and UN sanctions

Frontier access

Comprehensive US, EU, and UN sanctions. Domestic AI chip production: none. Workaround access (Chinese hardware via intermediaries) is unverified — ratio unknown.

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 IR. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing).

North Korea2 restricted

Most heavily sanctioned country. Complete technology isolation.

Per-chip status · 2

H100Restricted: Embargoed
B200Restricted: Embargoed

Regulatory notes

Subject to comprehensive US, EU, and UN sanctions
UN Security Council resolutions prohibit technology transfers

Frontier access0.00

Most heavily sanctioned country — complete technology isolation. No AI chip access, no domestic semiconductor capability.

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 KP. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing).

Russia5 restricted

Comprehensive trade embargo. All advanced chips denied. No case-by-case exceptions.

Per-chip status · 5

A100Restricted: Embargoed
H100Restricted: Embargoed
H200Restricted: Embargoed
B200Restricted: Embargoed
MI300XRestricted: Embargoed

Known workarounds

Third-party · low effectiveness

Documented re-export through Central Asian and Middle Eastern intermediaries

Example: BIS enforcement cases document seizures of chips transiting through UAE, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan

Source: BIS enforcement actions; press reports (unverified)

Regulatory notes

Subject to comprehensive US, EU, and allied trade sanctions since 2022
No exceptions or case-by-case pathways

Domestic production

Baikal and Elbrus processors (mature nodes, not AI-competitive). No advanced foundry.

Frontier access0.00

Comprehensive trade embargo — no AI chip access. Domestic Baikal/Elbrus processors are not AI-competitive. Documented re-export through intermediaries provides negligible aggregate capacity.

ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 RU. Source authority: tier 1 (primary regulation/filing).

20 of 26 profiled countries hold full or allied access; 4 are embargoed.

The access lattice — license posture per chip–country pair

The profiles

20 of 26 profiled countries hold full or allied access; 4 are embargoed.

The access lattice — license posture per chip–country pair

The profiles