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Scrutica
Inputs to 2026-08

Scenarios

Five stress cases over the AI-compute supply chain.

South China Sea: Cable Chokepoint Disruption

Several submarine cables can share the same narrow passage, so a count of cable systems can overstate the independence of their routes. Each of the four cases here names the tracked cables it assumes cut at one passage or landing between Asia and Europe and describes the routes that would remain, without putting a figure on the capacity lost or the delay added. Five historical incidents provide the comparison, from the 2006 Luzon Strait earthquake to the Red Sea faults of 2024.

Cable routes

7 selected cable systems, 8 landing stations and 6 named zones. Each case names the tracked cables it assumes cut at one passage or landing; the map highlights that set and does not calculate traffic flows.Four cases each assume that a set of tracked Asia–Europe cables is cut at one passage or landing, and describe the routes that would remain. The inventory is a selection; it omits records whose routes could not be substantiated.

Choose scenario

Assumed cut

After the February 2024 Red Sea cable faults, HGC reported rerouting through mainland China, the United States and surviving Red Sea cables. It estimated a 25% traffic impact, without defining the denominator. The four cases below examine selected interruptions across 7 cable systems.

Methodology →TeleGeography Submarine Cable Map · ICPC · HGC
Active scenarioNone selected

Chokepoint zones, the tracked cable inventory and the active case’s assumed set.

Cable Systems (7)

This selected inventory omits records whose identities, routes or regional dependencies could not be substantiated. Each case names which of the retained cables it assumes are cut. That selection is authored: a retained cable can cross a case's passage without being in its set, and the case cards mark where that happens.

AAE-1 (Asia-Africa-Europe 1)
RFS 2017
25,000 km40 Tbps design5 chokepoints
SEA-ME-WE 5
RFS 2017
20,000 km24 Tbps design4 chokepoints
FLAG Europe-Asia (FEA)
RFS 1997
28,000 km5 Tbps design5 chokepoints
PEACE (Pakistan & East Africa Connecting Europe)
RFS 2022
15,000 km192 Tbps design3 chokepoints
2Africa
RFS 2024
45,000 km180 Tbps design2 chokepoints
IMEWE (India-Middle East-Western Europe)
RFS 2010
12,091 km3.84 Tbps design3 chokepoints
EIG (Europe India Gateway)
RFS 2011
15,000 km3.84 Tbps design4 chokepoints

Chokepoint Zones

South China Sea (Luzon Strait)

critical

The Luzon Strait lies between Taiwan and the Philippines. After the December 2006 Hengchun earthquake, ICPC reported faults across nine cables in this area and identified submarine landslides as the likely cause.

Cables transiting: 2

TeleGeography; ICPC cable route data; USGS seismic records · Tier 2 · estimated

Strait of Malacca

elevated

The passage between the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra connects the Indian Ocean with the waters around Singapore. The selected cable routes converge here before continuing towards South and East Asia.

Cables transiting: 3

TeleGeography; IMO shipping density data; ICPC · Tier 3 · estimated

Bab el-Mandeb Strait

critical

Narrow strait (30km wide) connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. All Red Sea cables must transit this chokepoint. Active conflict zone since 2023 (Houthi attacks on shipping). Faults affected three cable systems in February 2024.

Cables transiting: 5

TeleGeography, 5 March 2024 (https://resources.telegeography.com/what-we-know-and-dont-about-multiple-cable-faults-in-the-red-sea) · Tier 3 · estimated

Red Sea Corridor

high

The selected routes cross the Red Sea between the Egyptian land crossings and the Gulf of Aden. Several share this passage despite serving different countries and landing stations.

Cables transiting: 6

TeleGeography; ICPC · Tier 2 · estimated

Suez Canal Crossing

critical

The mapped Asia–Europe routes converge at the Egyptian crossing between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. The map represents this area as one zone; it does not distinguish individual terrestrial crossings.

Cables transiting: 6

TeleGeography; Telecom Egypt; ITU · Tier 2 · estimated

Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf

high

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Fujairah’s landings lie on the Gulf of Oman side; a failure there is geographically distinct from an interruption inside the strait.

Cables transiting: 2

TeleGeography; JINSA Gulf infrastructure analysis · Tier 3 · estimated

Reported cable damage, service disruption and evidence about the cause.

Each case names the tracked cables it assumes cut, the tracked systems outside that set, and the routes that would remain.

The inventory, the assumptions behind each case, and how the historical accounts are read against them.