Inputs to 2026-08
Scenarios
Five stress cases over the AI-compute supply chain.
Five stress cases over the AI-compute supply chain.
Several submarine cables can share the same narrow passage, so a count of cable systems can overstate the independence of their routes. Each of the four cases here names the tracked cables it assumes cut at one passage or landing between Asia and Europe and describes the routes that would remain, without putting a figure on the capacity lost or the delay added. Five historical incidents provide the comparison, from the 2006 Luzon Strait earthquake to the Red Sea faults of 2024.
After the February 2024 Red Sea cable faults, HGC reported rerouting through mainland China, the United States and surviving Red Sea cables. It estimated a 25% traffic impact, without defining the denominator. The four cases below examine selected interruptions across 7 cable systems.
Chokepoint zones, the tracked cable inventory and the active case’s assumed set.
Reported cable damage, service disruption and evidence about the cause.
Each case names the tracked cables it assumes cut, the tracked systems outside that set, and the routes that would remain.
What the inventory records, what each case assumes, and how the historical accounts are read against them.
The linked run examines a different disruption: restrictions on services from Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Oracle. It follows recorded customer relationships into restricted and embargoed jurisdictions. It does not simulate a cable break or identify customers whose traffic uses a particular route; the cable routes and the assumed cases are analysed on this page.