Cascade Simulation

Gringras, David

2 corrections · latest May 19, 2026

Cascade Simulation merges FactSet Revere supplier-customer relationships, WRDS-FactSet competitor edges, and CSET ETO chip-deployment chains into a single firm-edge graph (20,969 bilateral edges). Per-edge criticality is the product of editorial replaceability (1–10) and FactSet 3-month stock-price correlation on the ~40% of edges where the price series is available (8,392 of 20,969); sole-source edges are floored at criticality 9 regardless of the correlation reading. Every weight carries its methodology trail inline; for the static hourglass view of layer-by-layer concentration, without temporal propagation, see Chokepoint Anatomy.

Cascade Simulation walks the supplier-customer graph one edge at a time, propagating a single chokepoint forward through every firm structurally exposed to the affected node; per-hop weight is the firm’s relationship value combined with the 3-month stock-price correlation between the two parties, which serves as the empirical coupling proxy across 20,969 bilateral edges drawn from verified supply chain relationships. Pre-built scenarios cover the chokepoints that recur in the policy literature (a Taiwan Strait crisis, an EUV lithography export halt, a CoWoS packaging shortage); custom node-removal sets render both an instant topology view and a temporal-dynamics view that incorporates inventory buffers and substitution lag. For the static hourglass view of layer-by-layer concentration, see Chokepoint Anatomy.

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Show all 19 cascade scenarios as a table (alternative to the interactive Cytoscape graph)

All 19 pre-built cascade scenarios with seed nodes, severity, and propagation decay. Severity is the initial impact magnitude at the seed; propagation decay attenuates impact per supply-chain hop. Sourced from SEC 10-K filings, USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, TrendForce / IDC / SemiAnalysis market-share reports, and editorial assessments where primary sources are unavailable. Each row links to the interactive cascade run.
Scenario	Category	Seed nodes	Severity	Sev. tier	Propagation decay	Direction
TSMC Taiwan Disruption	natural disaster	org-tsmc	1.00	T4

Comparison · RAND WR-A2625-1 — The Global Economy at the Firm-Level

Cascade Simulation · Scrutica vs RAND WR-A2625-1 propagation modelling

RAND’s working paper applies a firm-level macroeconomic shock-propagation framework anchored on FactSet Revere with ML-imputed missing edges; Scrutica’s cascade simulator extends the same edge-source family with explicit per-hop iterative decay, FactSet 3-month price-correlation weighting, and sole-source criticality flooring. The comparison establishes where Scrutica adds dimensions the published RAND working paper does not surface, not where Scrutica supplants RAND’s shock-propagation framework.

Access note · RAND publications landing page returned HTTP 403 at fetch time 2026-05-20; methodology summary below sourced from Scrutica’s existing peer-research synthesis (src/components/related-work/PeerNetworkSection.tsx:42–47) authored against the working paper, plus the published WR-A2625-1 abstract referenced therein. Cells label as verified-inaccessible where the published source could not be re-verified at fetch.

Dimension	Scrutica	RAND WR-A2625-1	What Scrutica adds

Peer attribution

Data Provenance

Research100%(20,970)

Sources

Source	Tier	Records
FactSet (Revere + Workstation)	T2	13,482
WRDS (FactSet supply-chain + Compustat segment)	T2	7,284
Other (BIS crossref + CSET ETO + research-residue)	T2	203
Epoch AI Facilities	T2	—

Processing

BFS propagation across the supply chain graph with weighted decay (supply share × substitutability × correlation-blend); per-edge FactSet 3-month stock-price correlation augments the editorial 1–10 criticality where available, with sole-source edges floored at criticality 9. Severity parameters from SEC 10-K filings (Tier 1–2) and structural assessments (Tier 3–4). All propagation-decay values are editorial assessments (Tier 4).

Reading this data

~valueEstimated — derived, modeled, or inferred. Hover for method and source.

valueDerived from another measured field (e.g. power from GPU count).

Source conflict — multiple sources disagree. Click for competing values.

hoverHover any annotated value to see authority tier, method, source, and vintage.

Full methodology

Scenario AnalysisChokepoint Analysis

Pre-built scenarios using this simulation engine