Scrutica
The BIS license-action substrate that underpins the export-control-friction half of this page ends at CY2022. Bilateral trade-flow (Comtrade + BACI + Taiwan Customs + China GACC + Japan e-Stat) runs through 2026 and IS what we measure for the post-CY2022 window. The two are not interchangeable: trade-flow records what shipped under HS-coded customs declarations; BIS license-action records what was licensed (or denied, or returned-without-action). They are reported side-by-side and never silently composed.
See what we can / cannot answer about the post-2022 window for the per-question crosswalk. Substrate refresh will land on the BIS publication, not on inference; the “Verify, never hedge” principle (CLAUDE.md DQP §8) holds — analyst commentary is not a substitute for the government measurement.
Per-country friction-rate over CY2017-CY2022: denial + RWA share of total applications, the honest signal at the public-data layer (raw approval rates run >99% for nearly every jurisdiction because BIS publishes returned-without-action as a stream distinct from denial). Click a row for the country's top-10 ECCN drill-down.2,587 rows across 33 jurisdictions.