WSTS Blue Book monthly semiconductor billings (1986-2026) by region with 3-month moving average cycle phase classification, Epoch AI GPU shipment volumes (quarterly, H100-equivalent), and BIS export control event markers. Phase algorithm: YoY growth of 3MMA with acceleration/deceleration classification.
The semiconductor industry follows a 3-4 year boom-bust cycle. This chart shows four decades of that cycle — and overlays the export control events and GPU shipment surges that define the AI compute era. Export controls imposed during market contractions have different trade effects than those imposed during booms.