IRGC Missile Range vs. Regional Compute

Scenario · IRGC missile envelope

Interactive exposure modeling of Gulf compute infrastructure against published IRGC missile capabilities (CSIS) and regional air defense installations (IISS).

Maps physical exposure of sovereign AI infrastructure in the Middle East to Iranian ballistic and cruise missile systems, based on published range envelopes and defense installations.

Exposure Analysis

Composite threat scoring from CSIS missile specs (14 systems), IISS air defense data, and empirical CEP from Oct 2024 satellite imagery. 17 facilities in range, 5 critical, 11 high. Launch origin: Khorramabad (Imam Ali Base)Which Gulf data centers, cloud regions, and AI training facilities are within range of Iranian missile systems, and how defended are they? 17 facilities across 6 countries assessed. Launch origin: Khorramabad (Imam Ali Base)

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Missile Class

Iranian missiles launched from Khorramabad (Imam Ali Base) put 17 regional facilities within strike range across 6 countries, including 15 cloud regions. The October 2024 Nevatim strikes demonstrated 800–900 m fleet-wide CEP (Eveleth/CNA Corp satellite imagery analysis; ~500 m only under assumptions extremely favourable to Iran). At that accuracy the relevant threat model for fixed infrastructure is saturation barrages, not single precision shots.

Methodology →CSIS Missile Threat Project · IISS Military Balance · CNA Corp 2024 satellite analysis

Strike Simulation7-phase strike walk-through (baseline → launch → midcourse → terminal → impact → cascade) with supply-chain propagation viz.7 phases · cascade auto-runs

Facilities at RiskPer-facility composite threat score: distance from launch site, defense vulnerability, targeting likelihood, strategic value.17 in range · 5 critical · 11 high

Conflict TimelineStrike-by-strike record of Iran ↔ Israel exchanges with intercept rates and the data-center incidents most likely to recur.4 events

Failover MapFor a selected at-risk facility: nearest cloud regions ranked by geographic distance, with each candidate's own Iran-range status flagged.

Methodology4-factor threat scoring (proximity, defense gap, targeting likelihood, strategic value) + sources (CSIS, IISS, CRS, satellite analysis).