Three independent supply curves (power availability, chip production, advanced packaging) projected forward from current baselines. The binding constraint at each quarter is whichever curve is lowest. Adjustable assumptions: PJM approval rate, construction delay factor, chip yield improvement, CoWoS capacity growth, GPU density per MW. Confidence bounds widen from 30% to 60% over 5 years.
How much AI computing power will be available in the coming years, and what physical limits constrain it? Power supply, chip manufacturing, and advanced packaging each set an independent ceiling. The lowest ceiling at any point determines total available compute — and that binding constraint can shift over time as different bottlenecks are addressed.