Cascade

2 corrections · latest May 19, 2026Fresh10d

If a node, region, or supply-chain layer fails, what stops — where, and how fast. A quantitative propagation model that walks the supplier–customer graph one edge at a time, weighting each hop by trade-flow share, editorial replaceability, and the stock-price correlation between coupled firms. The Engine runs any disruption you build; Scenarios pins it to named geopolitical stress cases, each carrying its own dated threat analysis.

Cascade

2 corrections · latest May 19, 2026Fresh10d

IRGC Missile Range vs. Regional Compute

Scenario · IRGC missile envelope

Analysis · reviewed Mar 2026Last reviewed 2026-07-18

Reviewed against major regional developments; threat-model parameters updated as events warrant.

Maps the physical exposure of sovereign AI infrastructure across the Gulf to Iranian ballistic and cruise-missile systems — published range envelopes and regional air-defense installations (CSIS, IISS) read against verified facility locations.

Exposure Analysis

Composite threat scoring from CSIS missile specs (14 systems), IISS air defense data, and empirical CEP from Oct 2024 satellite imagery. 17 facilities in range, 5 critical, 11 high. Launch origin: Khorramabad (Imam Ali Base)Which Gulf data centers, cloud regions, and AI training facilities are within range of Iranian missile systems, and how defended are they? 17 facilities across 6 countries assessed. Launch origin: Khorramabad (Imam Ali Base)

Choose launch origin

Missile Class

Iranian missiles launched from Khorramabad (Imam Ali Base) put 17 regional facilities within strike range across 6 countries, including 15 cloud regions. The October 2024 Nevatim strikes demonstrated 800–900 m fleet-wide CEP (Eveleth/CNA Corp satellite imagery analysis; ~500 m only under assumptions extremely favourable to Iran). At that accuracy the relevant threat model for fixed infrastructure is saturation barrages, not single precision shots.

Methodology →CSIS Missile Threat Project · IISS Military Balance · CNA Corp 2024 satellite analysis

Strike Simulation7-phase strike walk-through (baseline → launch → midcourse → terminal → impact → cascade) with supply-chain propagation viz.7 phases · cascade auto-runs

Facilities at RiskPer-facility composite threat score: distance from launch site, defense vulnerability, targeting likelihood, strategic value.17 in range · 5 critical · 11 high

Conflict TimelineStrike-by-strike record of Iran ↔ Israel exchanges with intercept rates and the data-center incidents most likely to recur.4 events

Failover MapFor a selected at-risk facility: nearest cloud regions ranked by geographic distance, with each candidate's own Iran-range status flagged.

Methodology4-factor threat scoring (proximity, defense gap, targeting likelihood, strategic value) + sources (CSIS, IISS, CRS, satellite analysis).

Rerun this disruption in the engine

The supply-chain cascade above already runs at full density — each simulated strike is a real engine run against the struck facility’s owner. This link opens that same run in the standalone engine, where you can hold it beside another organization or scenario and step through the temporal view. It carries the missile-exposure and air-defense layer no further; that analysis lives on this page. (The seed shown is Alphabet, a representative Gulf-region operator; the strike panel above lets you pick any in-range facility.)