Scrutica
Most advanced chips denied. H200/MI325X shifted from presumption of denial to case-by-case review (Jan 15, 2026). Blackwell-class (B200/B300) and Rubin-class strictly prohibited. Domestic production (SMIC 7nm via DUV) partially fills gap — Ascend 910C is now the primary domestic AI accelerator. BIS declared Huawei Ascend deployment violates export rules (May 2025).
Country-level aggregation: 22 facilities, 7000 organizations, 1788 supply chain edges. Export control tier: Heavily Restricted. 1 sovereign AI program.
What China can build, what it depends on imports for, and which export control regimes constrain its access to frontier hardware.
Compute Posture
China has 22 tracked facilities, 222 MW aggregate power capacity, under significant export control restrictions. 1 sovereign AI program with $55.7B announced. Supply chain footprint: 1788 relationships (1361 as supplier, 548 as customer).
Structural Note
Export control exposure: 1038 BIS Entity List designations targeting entities in China. Supply chain partners face procurement constraints through association.
| Name | Type | Status | Power (MW) | GPUs | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba Zhangbei | ai training | operational | 203 | -- | Alibaba |
| Name | Type | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| PXW Semiconductor Manufactory Co., Ltd. | fab operator | -- |
| Honor Device Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| Actions Semiconductor Co. Ltd. | chip designer | -- |
| colocation |
| announced |
| 19 |
| -- |
| GDS Holdings Limited |
| 万国数据深圳3号数据中心 | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- |
| 1A | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| Shenzhen Baiwangxinyun Datacenter | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Shenzhen Yixin Technology Co., Ltd. |
| Telehouse - Beijing BEZ | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Telehouse - Global Data Centers |
| Telehouse - Shanghai Zhangjiang | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Telehouse - Global Data Centers |
| Equinix SH5 - Shanghai | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Equinix, Inc. |
| GDS Beijing | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Services Ltd |
| Equinix SH3 - Shanghai | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Equinix, Inc. |
| HKCOLO | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| 澳門檔案館 Arquivo de Macau | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| 1B | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| Apple iCloud Gui'An data center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| 醫院管理局支援服務中心 Hospital Authority Supporting Services Centre | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| MEGA Gateway | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| 湖南移动衡阳分公司5G云数据中心 | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| GDS Shanghai Data Center | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| Telehouse - Beijing BDA | colocation | operational | -- | -- | Telehouse - Global Data Centers |
| Agricultural Bank of China (Data Center) | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- | -- |
| 4 | hyperscale dc | operational | -- | -- |
| GDS Shenzhen San | colocation | operational | -- | -- | GDS Services Ltd |
Binding layer: GPU Design (Huawei/HiSilicon (CHN)). Chinese entity (Entity List since Aug 2019, 84 FR 43495); allied leverage via three vectors of declining durability: (1) EDA license constraints (transitional, partially resolved via 2025 trade deal), (2) pre-2020 TSMC die stockpile depletion (transitional, exhausted by mid-2026), (3) SMIC equipment constraints under BIS presumption of denial (durable post-2027). Score of 30 blends 2025-2027 period; post-2027 durable leverage alone is closer to 15-20
Single-chip metric: best domestic chip (Ascend 910C, ~780 BF16 TFLOPS per DeepSeek research, authority tier 2) vs frontier (B200, 2,250 BF16 TFLOPS dense, Tensor Core without sparsity) = 780/2250 ≈ 0.35. AGGREGATE ESTIMATES DIVERGE: Epoch AI reports US holds ~75% of global GPU cluster performance vs China ~15% (5:1 ratio), but explicitly acknowledges covering only ~2% of China-destined NVIDIA chips. RAND estimates a "tenfold advantage" (10:1) including untracked stockpiles. The contradiction is real: Epoch measures tracked clusters (undercounts China), RAND includes estimated stockpiles (which would overstate the US advantage if stockpile estimates are high). System-level comparison: CloudMatrix 384 (384x 910C) = 300 PFLOPS BF16, roughly 2x GB200 NVL72 throughput but at 4.1x the power draw — China can partially compensate with brute-force scaling at massive efficiency penalties.
Ascend 910C: ~780 BF16 TFLOPS (~60% H100 inference per DeepSeek). CloudMatrix 384 system: 384x 910C, 300 PFLOPS BF16 — roughly 2x GB200 NVL72 throughput but 4.1x power draw. 2026 target: ~600K units.
ByteDance secured 36K Blackwell GPU cluster through Malaysia cloud operator
B30A: ~50% of B300 performance per TrendForce. Samples reportedly Sept 2025.
Chinese companies stockpiled chips ahead of Oct 2022 export controls
SMIC: 7nm via DUV multi-patterning (~30K wafers/month as of Q2 2025, up from 10-20K in 2024; targeting ~60K by end 2026). No EUV access. 80% chip self-sufficiency target by 2030. Ascend 910C is primary domestic AI chip (~600K units targeted 2026). Binding constraints: HBM supply (from SK Hynix/Samsung), lithography (no domestic EUV), advanced packaging (no domestic CoWoS equivalent at scale). (Source: TrendForce Aug 2025, authority tier 2-3)
| Epiq Information Technology (Shanghai) Company Limited |
| other |
| -- |
| Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) | fab operator | -- |
| ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) | fab operator | -- |
| The-Intellectual (Beijing) Media Co., Ltd | other | -- |
| Suishouzan | other | -- |
| You Kong Yang Che | other | -- |
| Atotech (China) Chemicals Ltd. | other | -- |
| Atotech (Yangzhou) Chemicals Ltd. | other | -- |
| Harman International (China) Holdings Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| ESI Electronic Equipment (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| MKS Instruments (China) Company Ltd. | other | -- |
| Newport Opto-Electronics Technologies (Wuxi) Company Limited | other | -- |
| Red Hat Software (Beijing) Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| ZTE H | equipment maker | -- |
| QUEST SOFTWARE (ZHUHAI) LTD. | other | -- |
| QUEST SOFTWARE BEIJING COMPANY LIMITED | other | -- |
| Carbon6 Shenzen Technology Company Ltd | other | -- |
| Fairchild Semiconductor (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| Fairchild Semiconductor Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited | other | -- |
| Fairchild Semiconductor Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| Fairchild Semiconductor Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. | other | -- |
| Leshan-Phoenix Semiconductor Company Limited | other | -- |
| ON Semiconductor (Shenzhen) Limited | other | -- |
| ON Semiconductor Shenzhen China (ONSC) Limited | other | -- |
| ON Semiconductor Technology Hong Kong Limited | other | -- |
| ON Semiconductor Trading (Shanghai) Limited | other | -- |
| SCG Hong Kong SAR Limited | other | -- |