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# Chokepoint Anatomy
## Supplier concentration across 9 layers of AI compute

43 entries, from chip materials to AI labs. Block widths reflect published market shares for HBM and Fabrication, and editorial importance elsewhere. A minimum block width keeps labels legible, so widths are not strictly proportional. Concentration figures use market shares alone. Select an entry to highlight its links within this diagram, or open the [dependency graph](https://scrutica.com/supply-chain) for the wider relationship register.

AI LabsFrontier compute consumersNO HHI — consumer layer

moderate criticality (editorial)

hardware consumers in this diagram

context: Epoch (T2 est.) · Menlo survey (T3)

No supplier HHI: AI labs appear here as hardware consumers; model and API markets are outside this measure. Separate context figures: US-enterprise LLM API spend Anthropic 40 / OpenAI 27 / Google 21 (Menlo Ventures survey n=495, Nov 2025, tier 3); OpenAI ~10–15% of world operational AI compute and top-five labs combined <50% at end-2025 (Epoch AI estimate, tier 2).

No supplier HHI is calculated for AI labs, which appear here as consumers of the hardware supply chain. Epoch AI (May 2026 estimate): OpenAI ~10–15% of world operational AI compute; top-five labs combined <50%.

OpenAIUSGPT series

#### Direct suppliers

-   Microsoft Azure
-   Oracle Cloud
-   Amazon Web Services

#### Direct customers

None tracked

Google DeepMindGBGemini series

#### Direct suppliers

-   Google Cloud

#### Direct customers

None tracked

AnthropicUSClaude series

#### Direct suppliers

-   Amazon Web Services

#### Direct customers

None tracked

Meta AIUSLLaMA (open)

#### Direct suppliers

-   Meta Infrastructure

#### Direct customers

None tracked

xAIUSGrok series

#### Direct suppliers

-   CoreWeave

#### Direct customers

None tracked

Mistral AIFREU frontier lab

#### Direct suppliers

-   CoreWeave

#### Direct customers

None tracked

Cloud & InfrastructureCompute deploymentHHI ≥ 1,421 — top-3 lower bound

moderate criticality (editorial)

cloud infra revenue shares · Q4 2025

Synergy Research · tier 2 · ~37% unattributed

LOWER BOUND (top-3 only): 28² + 21² + 14² = 1,421 from Synergy Research Group Q4 2025 worldwide cloud infrastructure revenue shares (tier 2). The remaining ~37% (Oracle, CoreWeave, Alibaba, long tail) is unattributed — the true HHI is strictly higher.

Cloud infrastructure services: AWS 28% / Azure 21% / GCP 14% worldwide (Synergy Research Group, Q4 2025, tier 2). Top-3 HHI ≥ 1,421 — a lower bound: the remaining ~37% (Oracle, CoreWeave, Alibaba, long tail) is unattributed, so the true HHI is higher.

Amazon Web ServicesUS28% cloud infra (Synergy Q4 2025)

#### Direct suppliers

-   NVIDIA Corporation
-   Advanced Micro Devices
-   Intel
-   Qualcomm

#### Direct customers

-   Anthropic
-   OpenAI

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/genai-helps-drive-quarterly-cloud-revenues-to-119-billion-as-growth-rate-jumped-yet-again-in-q4)

Microsoft AzureUS21% cloud infra (Synergy Q4 2025)

#### Direct suppliers

-   NVIDIA Corporation
-   Advanced Micro Devices
-   Intel
-   Qualcomm

#### Direct customers

-   OpenAI

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/genai-helps-drive-quarterly-cloud-revenues-to-119-billion-as-growth-rate-jumped-yet-again-in-q4)

Google CloudUS14% cloud infra (Synergy Q4 2025)

#### Direct suppliers

-   NVIDIA Corporation
-   Google (TPU)
-   Broadcom Inc

#### Direct customers

-   Google DeepMind

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/genai-helps-drive-quarterly-cloud-revenues-to-119-billion-as-growth-rate-jumped-yet-again-in-q4)

Meta InfrastructureUSInternal compute (not a cloud vendor)

#### Direct suppliers

-   NVIDIA Corporation

#### Direct customers

-   Meta AI

CoreWeaveUSGPU cloud — share unattributed

#### Direct suppliers

-   NVIDIA Corporation

#### Direct customers

-   xAI
-   Mistral AI

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001769628&type=S-1)

Oracle CloudUSShare unattributed (~37% tail)

#### Direct suppliers

-   NVIDIA Corporation

#### Direct customers

-   OpenAI

Chip DesignGPU & accelerator designersHHI — sourced-unavailable (tier-1/2)

high criticality (editorial)

NVIDIA ~80–85% merchant accel. · tier-3 band

denominator-sensitive — see methodology

No HHI at tier-1/2. Share band: NVIDIA ~80–85% of merchant AI accelerators (tier-3 analyst band, 2025). Including custom accelerators such as TPU and Trainium changes the market denominator. The OECD citation is indirect, through Farooque’s report of an analyst estimate (tier 3); HHI calculations here use only tier-1/2 shares.

Merchant AI accelerators: NVIDIA ~80–85% — a tier-3 analyst band whose scope depends on which custom accelerators are included. This dataset lacks qualifying tier-1/2 shares, so no HHI is calculated for this layer.

NVIDIA CorporationUS~80–85% merchant AI accel. (tier-3 band)

#### Direct suppliers

-   TSMC (CoWoS)
-   Synopsys
-   Cadence Design Systems
-   SK Hynix
-   Micron Technology
-   Samsung

#### Direct customers

-   Amazon Web Services
-   Microsoft Azure
-   Google Cloud
-   Meta Infrastructure
-   CoreWeave
-   Oracle Cloud

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/11/competition-in-artificial-intelligence-infrastructure_69319aee/623d1874-en.pdf)

Share band, tier 3; no qualifying tier-1/2 shares in this dataset. The market definition depends on whether custom accelerators such as Google TPU and AWS Trainium are included. The OECD’s "over 80%" GPU figure (Competition in Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure, 2025, §2.3.1) cites Farooque’s report of an analyst estimate. Scrutica retains its tier-3 status.

Advanced Micro DevicesUSMI300X / MI325X / MI355X

#### Direct suppliers

-   TSMC (CoWoS)
-   ASE Technology
-   Synopsys
-   Cadence Design Systems
-   SK Hynix
-   Micron Technology

#### Direct customers

-   Amazon Web Services
-   Microsoft Azure

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000002488&type=10-K)

Broadcom IncUSCustom ASICs

#### Direct suppliers

-   TSMC (CoWoS)
-   Synopsys
-   Cadence Design Systems
-   Samsung

#### Direct customers

-   Google Cloud

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001730168&type=10-K)

Google (TPU)USInternal accel.

#### Direct suppliers

-   TSMC (CoWoS)
-   SK Hynix

#### Direct customers

-   Google Cloud

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001652044&type=10-K)

IntelUSGaudi

#### Direct suppliers

-   Amkor Technology

#### Direct customers

-   Amazon Web Services
-   Microsoft Azure

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000050863&type=10-K)

QualcommUSInference chips

#### Direct suppliers

-   ASE Technology
-   Amkor Technology

#### Direct customers

-   Microsoft Azure
-   Amazon Web Services

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000804328&type=10-K)

EDA ToolsElectronic design automationHHI — sourced-unavailable (tier-1/2)

high criticality (editorial)

Synopsys ~32 / Cadence ~30 / Siemens ~14 · 2024 · tier 3

10-K revenue ÷ tier-3 market-size estimates

Estimated EDA market shares (2024): Synopsys ~32% (FY2024 10-K revenue $6.13B against tier-3 total-market estimates), Cadence ~30% (FY2024 10-K, 71% EDA segment), Siemens EDA ~14% (industry estimate, no named source). These estimates total ~76% of the market. No HHI is shown because they do not meet this chart’s tier-1/2 source requirement.

US export controls can apply to EDA software and its foreign direct products. Applicability depends on the product and destination, end-user or end-use criteria in 15 CFR 734.9.

SynopsysUS~32% EDA revenue share (tier-3 derived)

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   NVIDIA Corporation
-   Advanced Micro Devices
-   Broadcom Inc

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=synopsys&type=10-K)

Revenue $6.13B (FY2024 10-K). Share is derived from revenue / total market estimate. Total market size is a tier-3 estimate.

Cadence Design SystemsUS~30% EDA revenue share (tier-3 derived)

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   NVIDIA Corporation
-   Advanced Micro Devices
-   Broadcom Inc

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=cadence+design&type=10-K)

Revenue $4.64B (71% EDA segment, FY2024 10-K). Total market size is a tier-3 estimate.

Siemens EDADE~14% EDA (industry estimate)

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

None tracked

Siemens AG unit (formerly Mentor Graphics). No named source is recorded for this market-share estimate.

Advanced PackagingCoWoS, InFO, chiplet integrationHHI — sourced-unavailable

high criticality (editorial)

CoWoS capacity: 75K → ~130K wpm, ’25→’26

TrendForce · tier 2 · capacity ≠ share

No qualifying tier-1/2 supplier shares for advanced packaging (CoWoS) in this dataset; HHI sourced-unavailable. Capacity context (TrendForce, tier 2): ~75K wafers/month end-2025 → ~130K projected end-2026; TSMC dominant with ASE (SPIL) and Amkor as overflow. Capacity is not a market share.

CoWoS capacity (TrendForce, tier 2): TSMC ~75K wafers/month (end 2025) → ~130K projected (end 2026); ASE (SPIL) and Amkor absorb overflow. Capacity ≠ market share — qualifying tier-1/2 shares are absent from this dataset, so packaging HHI is sourced-unavailable.

TSMC (CoWoS)TWPrimary AI packaging

#### Direct suppliers

-   TSMC

#### Direct customers

-   NVIDIA Corporation
-   Advanced Micro Devices
-   Broadcom Inc
-   Google (TPU)

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/01/02/news-tsmc-set-to-expand-cowos-capacity-to-record-75000-wafers-in-2025-doubling-2024-output/)

~75K wafers/month (end 2025, verbatim at source); ~130K (end 2026) is a TrendForce-tracked projection reported via syndicated trade coverage. Source: TrendForce (Tier 2).

ASE TechnologyTWOSAT (SPIL subsidiary)

#### Direct suppliers

-   Samsung Foundry
-   SMIC

#### Direct customers

-   Qualcomm
-   Advanced Micro Devices

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/01/02/news-tsmc-set-to-expand-cowos-capacity-to-record-75000-wafers-in-2025-doubling-2024-output/)

SPIL handles ~60–80K CoWoS wafers/year overflow. Source: TrendForce (Tier 2).

Amkor TechnologyUSCoWoS overflow partner

#### Direct suppliers

-   GlobalFoundries

#### Direct customers

-   Intel
-   Qualcomm

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/01/02/news-tsmc-set-to-expand-cowos-capacity-to-record-75000-wafers-in-2025-doubling-2024-output/)

~180–190K CoWoS wafers/year from TSMC overflow. Source: TrendForce (Tier 2).

HBM MemoryAI accelerator memoryHHI 3,913 — measured

high criticality (editorial)

HBM revenue shares 50/33/18 · Q2 2026

Counterpoint Research · tier 2

Measured: 50² + 33² + 18² = 3,913 from Counterpoint Research Q2 2026 HBM revenue shares (SK Hynix / Samsung / Micron — all suppliers named; tier 2, via Semiecosystem). Samsung recovered 15% → 33% Q2→Q3 2025 on HBM3E qualification; refresh on Q4 publication.

HBM revenue shares: SK Hynix ~50%, Samsung ~33%, Micron ~18% (Q2 2026, Counterpoint Research, tier 2) — HHI 3,913 = 50² + 33² + 18². Published rounded shares total 101%; HHI is approximate.

SK HynixKR~50% HBM share

#### Direct suppliers

-   TSMC

#### Direct customers

-   NVIDIA Corporation
-   Advanced Micro Devices
-   Google (TPU)

[Source for this company ↗](https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-dram-and-hbm-market-share)

Largest HBM supplier in every quarter of Counterpoint’s series from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026 (64% falling to 50%). Source: Counterpoint Research (Tier 2).

SamsungKR~33% HBM

#### Direct suppliers

-   Samsung Foundry

#### Direct customers

-   NVIDIA Corporation
-   Broadcom Inc

[Source for this company ↗](https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-dram-and-hbm-market-share)

~33% HBM market share (Q2 2026, Counterpoint Research), up from 15% in Q2 2025 on Counterpoint’s series.

Micron TechnologyUS~18% HBM

#### Direct suppliers

-   TSMC

#### Direct customers

-   NVIDIA Corporation
-   Advanced Micro Devices

[Source for this company ↗](https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-dram-and-hbm-market-share)

~18% HBM market share (Q2 2026, Counterpoint Research), from 21% in each quarter from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026.

FabricationSemiconductor foundriesHHI 5,007 — named-share lower bound

extreme criticality (editorial)

foundry revenue, top-6 named · FY2025

TrendForce · tier 2 · adv-node co. HHI: none

Named-share lower bound: 69.9² + 7.2² + 5.32² + 4.35² + 3.87² + 2.6² ≈ 5,007, recomputed in code from TrendForce FY2025 foundry revenue shares (tier 2, via Taipei Times 2026-03-14). Advanced node: Taiwan ~92% of leading-edge pure-play foundry manufacturing (CSET/VerWey 2021, country-level); the cited passage gives no company breakdown, and no company-level advanced-node HHI is calculated here.

Overall foundry revenue FY2025 (TrendForce, tier 2): TSMC 69.9 / Samsung 7.2 / SMIC 5.32 / UMC 4.35 / GF 3.87 / Hua Hong 2.6 — named-share HHI 5,007 (lower bound). Advanced node: Taiwan ~92% of leading-edge pure-play foundry manufacturing (CSET/VerWey 2021) — a country-level figure; the cited passage gives no company breakdown.

TSMCTW69.9% foundry revenue (FY2025)

#### Direct suppliers

-   Shin-Etsu Chemical
-   SUMCO Corporation
-   JSR Corporation
-   Entegris
-   Tokyo Ohka Kogyo
-   ASML Holding
-   Applied Materials
-   Lam Research
-   Tokyo Electron
-   KLA Corporation

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC (CoWoS)
-   SK Hynix
-   Micron Technology

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/03/14/2003853777)

TrendForce FY2025: $122.54B foundry revenue, 69.9% share (up from 64.4% in 2024). Advanced node: Taiwan ~92% of leading-edge pure-play foundry manufacturing (CSET "No Permits, No Fabs", VerWey 2021) — a country-level figure; the cited passage gives no company breakdown.

Samsung FoundryKR7.2% foundry revenue (FY2025)

#### Direct suppliers

-   Shin-Etsu Chemical
-   ASML Holding
-   Applied Materials

#### Direct customers

-   ASE Technology
-   Samsung

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/03/14/2003853777)

SMICCN · BIS Entity List5.32% foundry rev · BIS-listed

#### Direct suppliers

-   ASML Holding
-   Applied Materials
-   Lam Research
-   Tokyo Electron
-   KLA Corporation

#### Direct customers

-   ASE Technology

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/03/14/2003853777)

BIS Entity List addition Dec 2020 (Federal Register 2020-28031); advanced-tool shipments under presumption of denial.

United MicroelectronicsTW4.35% foundry revenue (FY2025)

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

None tracked

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/03/14/2003853777)

GlobalFoundriesUS3.87% foundry revenue (FY2025)

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   Amkor Technology

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/03/14/2003853777)

Hua Hong GroupCN2.6% foundry revenue (FY2025)

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

None tracked

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/03/14/2003853777)

EquipmentLithography, deposition, etchHHI 10,000 — EUV sub-layer only

extreme criticality (editorial)

ASML 100% of EUV systems · 2025 · tier 1

ASML AR + 6-K · broader equip: unavailable

EUV sub-layer (tier 1): ASML 100% of EUV lithography systems → HHI 10,000, the ceiling of the scale. Source: ASML 2025 Annual Report, financial-performance section + Q4-2025 investor presentation (Form 6-K, Jan 28, 2026) (48 EUV systems recognized 2025, 4 EXE + 44 NXE; EUV system sales +39% to €11.6B). This HHI covers EUV lithography only. No HHI is available here for the broader wafer-fab equipment market.

EUV lithography: 100% ASML — HHI 10,000, tier 1 (ASML 2025 Annual Report, financial-performance section + Q4-2025 investor presentation (Form 6-K, Jan 28, 2026)). Broader wafer-fab equipment market (deposition, etch, metrology): no sourced HHI.

ASML HoldingNL100% EUV monopoly

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC
-   Samsung Foundry
-   SMIC

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report)

Sole supplier of EUV lithography systems (tier 1). 2025: 48 EUV systems recognized in revenue (4 High-NA EXE + 44 NXE); EUV system sales +39% YoY to €11.6B; ~83% of ALL lithography systems by unit count. Source: ASML 2025 Annual Report, financial-performance section + Q4-2025 investor presentation (Form 6-K, Jan 28, 2026).

Applied MaterialsUSCVD, etch, CMP

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC
-   Samsung Foundry
-   SMIC

Lam ResearchUSEtch & deposition

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC
-   SMIC

Tokyo ElectronJPCoater/developer

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC
-   SMIC

KLA CorporationUSMetrology

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC
-   SMIC

Materials & ChemicalsWafers, photoresists, specialty gasesHHI — sourced-unavailable

high criticality (editorial)

wafers: supplier shares unavailable here

Japan ~56% of wafers · CSET 2024 · tier 2

Sourced-unavailable: this dataset lacks qualifying supplier shares for silicon wafers, photoresists and specialty chemicals. Country-level context: Japan ~56% of global silicon wafers (CSET TechInsights 2024, tier 2).

Silicon wafers: Japan ~56% COUNTRY-level (CSET TechInsights 2024, tier 2). Per-supplier shares: sourced-unavailable — the dataset lacks qualifying supplier shares for a wafer HHI. Photoresist/specialty chemicals: sourced-unavailable.

Shin-Etsu ChemicalJP#1 wafer supplier

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC
-   Samsung Foundry

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.shinetsu.co.jp/en/ir/)

CSET TechInsights 2024: Japan = 56% of global silicon wafers (country-level). Per-supplier share: sourced-unavailable — qualifying supplier shares are absent from this dataset.

SUMCO CorporationJP#2 wafers

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC

[Source for this company ↗](https://www.sumcosi.com/english/ir/)

JSR CorporationJPEUV photoresists

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC

Merged with JICC-02 in December 2024 under its JIC Capital partnership.

EntegrisUSSpecialty chemicals

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC

Tokyo Ohka KogyoJPPhotoresists

#### Direct suppliers

None tracked

#### Direct customers

-   TSMC

Measured shares: Counterpoint Q2 2026 (HBM) · TrendForce FY2025 (foundry, named top-6) · Synergy Q4 2025 (cloud top-3, lower bound) · ASML 2025 AR (EUV, tier 1) · CSET/VerWey 2021 (Taiwan country-level, advanced node). Block widths: measured shares on HBM + Fabrication; editorial importance weights elsewhere. HHI calculations use market shares independently of these widths. Link graph: CSET TechInsights 2024, licensed supply-chain database, SEC EDGAR, BIS Entity List.

ASML is the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography machines, so the EUV sub-layer scores 10,000, the ceiling of the Herfindahl scale.

Criticality is an editorial assessment (tier 4). Concentration uses published market shares, with their source and vintage beside each figure. The EDA Tools and Chip Design estimates do not meet the tier-1/2 source requirement for HHI calculations here. The 2010 DOJ/FTC Horizontal Merger Guidelines classify markets with an HHI above 2,500 as “highly concentrated”; the 2023 Guidelines use 1,800. This comparison applies to the market-share calculations here.

**Colossus 1 sits outside the cloud layer.** On 6 May 2026, Anthropic announced an agreement to use all of Colossus 1’s compute capacity: more than 300 MW and over 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs, with access expected within that month. This dedicated arrangement is outside the cloud-provider market measured here. Sources: [Anthropic announcement (Tier 1)](https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex), [DataCenterDynamics 2026-05-06 (Tier 2)](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/anthropic-to-use-all-of-spacex-xais-colossus-1-data-center-compute/).

Methodology

**(1) Measured concentration.** HHI calculations use the following tier-1/2 market shares: HBM 3,913 ([Counterpoint Q2 2026](https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-dram-and-hbm-market-share): 50² + 33² + 18²); Fabrication 5,007 as a named-share lower bound ([TrendForce FY2025](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/03/14/2003853777): 69.9² + 7.2² + 5.32² + 4.35² + 3.87² + 2.6²); EUV sub-layer 10,000 ([ASML 2025 Annual Report](https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report) + Q4-2025 6-K, tier 1; ASML is the sole EUV supplier: 48 systems recognized 2025, sales +39% to €11.6B); Cloud ≥ 1,421 as a top-3 lower bound ([Synergy Q4 2025](https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/genai-helps-drive-quarterly-cloud-revenues-to-119-billion-as-growth-rate-jumped-yet-again-in-q4): 28² + 21² + 14²; ~37% of the market is unattributed, so the true value is strictly higher). The dataset lacks qualifying supplier shares for Advanced Packaging, Materials and the broader Equipment market beyond EUV. The Herfindahl chart labels the Advanced Packaging and Materials rows “qualifying shares unavailable here”. Packaging capacity estimates describe production volume and cannot substitute for market shares.

NVIDIA’s estimated share of merchant AI accelerators is **~80–85%** (tier-3 analyst estimate). The band depends on the market definition, including whether it covers custom accelerators used by their designers. It is not used to calculate an HHI. The [OECD’s “over 80%” GPU line](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/11/competition-in-artificial-intelligence-infrastructure_69319aee/623d1874-en.pdf) (Competition in AI Infrastructure, 2025, §2.3.1) cites Farooque’s report of an analyst estimate. AI labs appear here as hardware consumers, without a supplier HHI (context: [Menlo Nov 2025](https://menlovc.com/perspective/2025-the-state-of-generative-ai-in-the-enterprise/) enterprise API-spend survey, n=495, tier 3; [Epoch AI](https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/frontier-labs-dont-use-most-ai-compute) compute-share estimates, tier 2). Advanced node: Taiwan ~92% of leading-edge pure-play foundry manufacturing ([CSET “No Permits, No Fabs”](https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/no-permits-no-fabs/), VerWey 2021) is a **country-level** figure from 2021. The cited passage does not provide a company-level breakdown.

**(2) Editorial importance weights.** The weights that size entity blocks outside HBM and Fabrication are tier-4 assessments of supply-chain importance, informed by CSET TechInsights 2024, a licensed supply-chain database and SEC EDGAR. These weights determine block sizes, independently of the HHI calculations.

### The compute supply chain, layer by layer

2 corrections · latest Sep 25, 2026

-   [Sep 25, 2026 · Colossus 1: Anthropic’s compute agreements with SpaceX](https://scrutica.com/corrections#colossus-1-anthropic-agreements-2026-09-25)
-   [Sep 7, 2026 · Stargate UAE chip inventory withheld](https://scrutica.com/corrections#editorial-fac-epoch-gc-stargate-uae-phase-1-total_gpu_count)

Cite

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PrintScreenshot

Show all 9 supply chain layers as a table (alternative to the interactive hourglass)

All 9 layers of the compute supply chain, from raw materials to AI labs. Each row carries the editorial chokepoint-criticality level (assessed supply-chain importance, tier 4), the measured concentration state, the citable basis with its metric, source, vintage and authority tier, and the top-3 nodes in editorial importance order.

| Layer | Criticality (editorial) — Editorial assessment of supply-chain importance: moderate, high or extreme. Classified as tier 4 in the source hierarchy. | Measured concentration — Herfindahl–Hirschman Index recomputed in code from published market shares (range 0–10,000). "≥" marks lower bounds; "qualifying shares unavailable here" means qualifying tier-1/2 shares are missing from this dataset; AI labs appear as hardware consumers and have no supplier-concentration figure here. Never computed from editorial weights. | Basis (metric · source · vintage · tier) | Top nodes (editorial importance order) — Ordered by block-sizing weight: the measured share where the layer’s full charted set is published (HBM, Fabrication), otherwise editorial supply-chain-importance weight. Ordering only; weights are never rendered as market-share percentages. |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| AI Labs · Frontier compute consumers | moderate | NO HHI — consumer layer | No supplier HHI: AI labs appear here as hardware consumers; model and API markets are outside this measure. Separate context figures: US-enterprise LLM API spend Anthropic 40 / OpenAI 27 / Google 21 (Menlo Ventures survey n=495, Nov 2025, tier 3); OpenAI ~10–15% of world operational AI compute and top-five labs combined <50% at end-2025 (Epoch AI estimate, tier 2). | OpenAI · US; Google DeepMind · GB; Anthropic · US |
| Cloud & Infrastructure · Compute deployment | moderate | HHI ≥ 1,421 — top-3 lower bound | LOWER BOUND (top-3 only): 28² + 21² + 14² = 1,421 from Synergy Research Group Q4 2025 worldwide cloud infrastructure revenue shares (tier 2). The remaining ~37% (Oracle, CoreWeave, Alibaba, long tail) is unattributed — the true HHI is strictly higher. | Amazon Web Services · US; Microsoft Azure · US; Google Cloud · US |
| Chip Design · GPU & accelerator designers | high | HHI — sourced-unavailable (tier-1/2) | No HHI at tier-1/2. Share band: NVIDIA ~80–85% of merchant AI accelerators (tier-3 analyst band, 2025). Including custom accelerators such as TPU and Trainium changes the market denominator. The OECD citation is indirect, through Farooque’s report of an analyst estimate (tier 3); HHI calculations here use only tier-1/2 shares. | NVIDIA Corporation · US; Advanced Micro Devices · US; Broadcom Inc · US |
| EDA Tools · Electronic design automation | high | HHI — sourced-unavailable (tier-1/2) | Estimated EDA market shares (2024): Synopsys ~32% (FY2024 10-K revenue $6.13B against tier-3 total-market estimates), Cadence ~30% (FY2024 10-K, 71% EDA segment), Siemens EDA ~14% (industry estimate, no named source). These estimates total ~76% of the market. No HHI is shown because they do not meet this chart’s tier-1/2 source requirement. | Synopsys · US; Cadence Design Systems · US; Siemens EDA · DE |
| Advanced Packaging · CoWoS, InFO, chiplet integration | high | HHI — sourced-unavailable | No qualifying tier-1/2 supplier shares for advanced packaging (CoWoS) in this dataset; HHI sourced-unavailable. Capacity context (TrendForce, tier 2): ~75K wafers/month end-2025 → ~130K projected end-2026; TSMC dominant with ASE (SPIL) and Amkor as overflow. Capacity is not a market share. | TSMC (CoWoS) · TW; ASE Technology · TW; Amkor Technology · US |
| HBM Memory · AI accelerator memory | high | HHI 3,913 — measured | Measured: 50² + 33² + 18² = 3,913 from Counterpoint Research Q2 2026 HBM revenue shares (SK Hynix / Samsung / Micron — all suppliers named; tier 2, via Semiecosystem). Samsung recovered 15% → 33% Q2→Q3 2025 on HBM3E qualification; refresh on Q4 publication. | SK Hynix · KR; Samsung · KR; Micron Technology · US |
| Fabrication · Semiconductor foundries | extreme | HHI 5,007 — named-share lower bound | Named-share lower bound: 69.9² + 7.2² + 5.32² + 4.35² + 3.87² + 2.6² ≈ 5,007, recomputed in code from TrendForce FY2025 foundry revenue shares (tier 2, via Taipei Times 2026-03-14). Advanced node: Taiwan ~92% of leading-edge pure-play foundry manufacturing (CSET/VerWey 2021, country-level); the cited passage gives no company breakdown, and no company-level advanced-node HHI is calculated here. | TSMC · TW; Samsung Foundry · KR; SMIC · CN |
| Equipment · Lithography, deposition, etch | extreme | HHI 10,000 — EUV sub-layer only | EUV sub-layer (tier 1): ASML 100% of EUV lithography systems → HHI 10,000, the ceiling of the scale. Source: ASML 2025 Annual Report, financial-performance section + Q4-2025 investor presentation (Form 6-K, Jan 28, 2026) (48 EUV systems recognized 2025, 4 EXE + 44 NXE; EUV system sales +39% to €11.6B). This HHI covers EUV lithography only. No HHI is available here for the broader wafer-fab equipment market. | ASML Holding · NL; Applied Materials · US; Lam Research · US |
| Materials & Chemicals · Wafers, photoresists, specialty gases | high | HHI — sourced-unavailable | Sourced-unavailable: this dataset lacks qualifying supplier shares for silicon wafers, photoresists and specialty chemicals. Country-level context: Japan ~56% of global silicon wafers (CSET TechInsights 2024, tier 2). | Shin-Etsu Chemical · JP; SUMCO Corporation · JP; JSR Corporation · JP |

### Herfindahl calculation and coverage limits

Herfindahl–Hirschman index of each layer’s supply market

010,000 · one supplier

1.  Equipment10,000
    
    Lithography, deposition, etch · extreme criticality
    
    measured, EUV lithography sub-layer only · ASML 100% of EUV systems · 2025 · tier 1
    
2.  HBM Memory3,913
    
    AI accelerator memory · high criticality
    
    measured · HBM revenue shares 50/33/18 · Q2 2026
    
3.  Fabrication≥ 5,007
    
    Semiconductor foundries · extreme criticality
    
    lower bound · foundry revenue, top-6 named · FY2025
    
4.  Cloud & Infrastructure≥ 1,421
    
    Compute deployment · moderate criticality
    
    lower bound · cloud infra revenue shares · Q4 2025
    
5.  Advanced Packaging—
    
    CoWoS, InFO, chiplet integration · high criticality
    
    qualifying shares unavailable here · CoWoS capacity: 75K → ~130K wpm, ’25→’26
    
6.  Chip Design—
    
    GPU & accelerator designers · high criticality
    
    qualifying shares unavailable here · NVIDIA ~80–85% merchant accel. · tier-3 band
    
7.  EDA Tools—
    
    Electronic design automation · high criticality
    
    qualifying shares unavailable here · Synopsys ~32 / Cadence ~30 / Siemens ~14 · 2024 · tier 3
    
8.  Materials & Chemicals—
    
    Wafers, photoresists, specialty gases · high criticality
    
    qualifying shares unavailable here · wafers: supplier shares unavailable here
    
9.  AI Labs—
    
    Frontier compute consumers · moderate criticality
    
    consumer layer · hardware consumers in this diagram
    

4

of 9 layers have an HHI estimate: 2 from complete market shares and 2 lower bounds from partial shares.

5

layers have no HHI estimate. For 4, supplier shares from primary or primary-adjacent sources are unavailable in this dataset. The remaining 1 is the AI-lab consumer layer.

10,000

Highest HHI from complete market shares: **Equipment**, EUV lithography sub-layer.

The Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI) is the sum of suppliers’ squared percentage market shares, with a maximum of 10,000. A supplier with 70% contributes 4,900 points; seven suppliers with 10% each contribute 700 in total. Measured figures appear first, followed by lower bounds and layers without a figure.

Solid bars use published market shares. An open edge marks a lower bound calculated from the named suppliers; unattributed suppliers would add to it. Dotted rows lack qualifying tier-1 or tier-2 shares in this dataset. AI labs appear as consumers of the hardware supply chain, so they have no supplier-concentration figure here.

Criticality is an editorial assessment of supply-chain importance, separate from the concentration calculation. The [stress index](https://scrutica.com/supply-chain/concentration#stress) combines concentration across 93 CSET steps using portfolio weights; its scope differs from these individual markets.