{
  "_format": "scrutica-export-v1",
  "metadata": {
    "title": "Abqaiq 2.0: Saudi Grid and Compute Co-Location: Authored cases",
    "exported_at": "2026-11-11T16:55:44.338Z",
    "page_url": "https://scrutica.com/scenarios/abqaiq-2",
    "methodology_url": "https://scrutica.com/methodology",
    "license": "See https://scrutica.com/about for current license terms",
    "citation": "Scrutica (2026). Abqaiq 2.0: Saudi Grid and Compute Co-Location: Authored cases. Retrieved November 11, 2026, from https://scrutica.com/scenarios/abqaiq-2",
    "record_count": 4,
    "processing": "Pairs inside the 200 km distance screen are grouped by their assigned shared substation, shared grid zone or proximity across different zones. The distance screen is an editorial choice applied before rounding (distance strictly less than 200 km), not a blast radius or an outage-propagation model. Substation assignments include inferred connections. The assessment does not simulate electrical failures or backup power. 4 authored cases retain their disruption assumptions; scenario outage descriptions are assumptions, not calculated forecasts. Missing capacities, generation and backup duration remain unknown, never zero. The former defense-gap circles, site-hardening classifications, severity equation and future-risk predictions were withdrawn. Export time is not source vintage; event dates are preserved separately from unknown per-record source vintages.",
    "provenance_fields": {
      "is_estimated": "A per-record flag, set by the pipeline step that last wrote it, under that step’s own rule. True means that step judged the record estimated, on grounds that include a modeled, derived or inferred value, an unconfirmed record and a secondary source. False means no such judgment is recorded; it is not a verification. Read the flag with the record’s authority tier.",
      "data_source": "primary data source for this record",
      "source_url": "direct URL to the primary source, when available",
      "authority_tier": "reliability rating: 1=primary filing, 2=research DB, 3=press/analyst, 4=Scrutica-inferred, 5=unverified",
      "estimation_method": "how estimated values were derived (reported, hardware_derived, power_derived, cost_imputed, benchmark_inferred, cross_source_reconciled, editorial, aggregated)",
      "data_vintage": "when the underlying source data was originally produced (not when Scrutica accessed it)"
    },
    "data_sources": [
      {
        "name": "Saudi Energy Infrastructure",
        "url": "https://www.aramco.com/",
        "authority_tier": 1,
        "tier_label": "Primary filing (SEC, government, company disclosure)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Aramco Disclosures",
        "url": "https://www.aramco.com/en/investors",
        "authority_tier": 1,
        "tier_label": "Primary filing (SEC, government, company disclosure)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Aramco restoration statement, 17 September 2019",
        "url": "https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/saudi-aramco-swiftly-restores-production-capacity",
        "authority_tier": 1,
        "tier_label": "Primary filing (SEC, government, company disclosure)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Scrutica facilities register",
        "url": "/methodology",
        "authority_tier": 2,
        "tier_label": "Research database (Epoch AI, CSET, etc.)"
      },
      {
        "name": "AWS Saudi Arabia Region announcement, 2026-08-31: https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/aws/aws-cloud-region-saudi-arabia",
        "url": "https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/aws/aws-cloud-region-saudi-arabia",
        "authority_tier": 1,
        "tier_label": "Primary filing (SEC, government, company disclosure)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Google Cloud regional catalogue (region identity): https://status.cloud.google.com/regional/middle-east",
        "url": "https://status.cloud.google.com/regional/middle-east",
        "authority_tier": 1,
        "tier_label": "Primary filing (SEC, government, company disclosure)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Oracle region history: https://www.oracle.com/sa/cloud/cloud-regions/riyadh/",
        "url": "https://www.oracle.com/sa/cloud/cloud-regions/riyadh/",
        "authority_tier": 1,
        "tier_label": "Primary filing (SEC, government, company disclosure)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Oracle release note, 2024-07-31: https://docs.oracle.com/en-us/iaas/releasenotes/changes/45cb2bf5-290f-40fb-af89-b7b9455f35fe/index.htm",
        "url": "https://docs.oracle.com/en-us/iaas/releasenotes/changes/45cb2bf5-290f-40fb-af89-b7b9455f35fe/index.htm",
        "authority_tier": 1,
        "tier_label": "Primary filing (SEC, government, company disclosure)"
      },
      {
        "name": "DataVolt–MODON project announcement, 2025-02-20 (project context; existing coordinates and construction status remain unverified): https://data-volt.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/DataVolt-x-MODON-Press-Release.pdf",
        "url": "https://data-volt.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/DataVolt-x-MODON-Press-Release.pdf",
        "authority_tier": 3,
        "tier_label": "Press / analyst report"
      },
      {
        "name": "Incident history: Aramco, https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/incidents-at-abqaiq-and-khurais and https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/saudi-aramco-swiftly-restores-production-capacity. Other facility metadata: Aramco 2019 disclosure; UN Panel of Experts S/2020/326; CSIS.",
        "url": "https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/incidents-at-abqaiq-and-khurais",
        "authority_tier": 1,
        "tier_label": "Primary filing (SEC, government, company disclosure)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Incident history: GCC Ministerial Council, March 2021, https://www.spa.gov.sa/w1526436. Other facility metadata: Reuters; Aramco.",
        "url": "https://www.spa.gov.sa/w1526436",
        "authority_tier": 2,
        "tier_label": "Research database (Epoch AI, CSET, etc.)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Incident history: Aramco Annual Report 2019, p. 53, https://www.aramco.com/-/media/publications/corporate-reports/annual-reports/saudi-aramco-ara-2019-english.pdf#page=55. Other facility metadata: Reuters; Aramco.",
        "url": "https://www.aramco.com/-/media/publications/corporate-reports/annual-reports/saudi-aramco-ara-2019-english.pdf#page=55",
        "authority_tier": 2,
        "tier_label": "Research database (Epoch AI, CSET, etc.)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Saudi Ministry of Energy, 25 March 2022, via SPA",
        "url": "https://www.spa.gov.sa/2340735",
        "authority_tier": 1,
        "tier_label": "Primary filing (SEC, government, company disclosure)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "data": [
    {
      "id": "abqaiq-replay",
      "name": "Abqaiq 2019 Replay",
      "attackVector": "Low-altitude cruise missiles + drone swarm from west/northwest",
      "description": "A repeat disruption at Abqaiq is assumed to damage electricity infrastructure shared with nearby data centres. The 2019 attack provides the petroleum-disruption precedent. A data-centre outage would additionally require loss of its power supply and insufficient backup; neither condition is established by a shared grid-zone label.",
      "primaryTargets": [
        "pet-abqaiq"
      ],
      "gridZonesAffected": [
        "gz-eastern"
      ],
      "dcFacilitiesAffected": [
        "sa-google-dammam",
        "sa-aramco-dhahran"
      ],
      "estimatedOutageDuration": "24-72 hours (backup generators) → weeks if grid substations damaged",
      "historicalBasis": "Aramco reported a suspension of 5.7 million barrels per day on 14 September 2019. Its 17 September update reported partial restoration; the initial loss was not sustained at that level for two weeks.",
      "source": "Aramco incident and restoration statements, 14 and 17 September 2019: https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/incidents-at-abqaiq-and-khurais; https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/saudi-aramco-swiftly-restores-production-capacity",
      "authorityTier": 2,
      "case_basis": "Authored disruption assumption; not a simulated outcome",
      "selection_scope_note": "Use the named site and grid-zone sets; regional membership alone does not expand the authored selection.",
      "data_source": "Aramco incident and restoration statements, 14 and 17 September 2019: https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/incidents-at-abqaiq-and-khurais; https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/saudi-aramco-swiftly-restores-production-capacity",
      "source_url": null,
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/incidents-at-abqaiq-and-khurais",
        "https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/saudi-aramco-swiftly-restores-production-capacity"
      ],
      "authority_tier": 2,
      "data_vintage": null,
      "is_estimated": null
    },
    {
      "id": "houthi-swarm",
      "name": "Houthi Mass Drone Swarm",
      "attackVector": "Large drone swarm (100+) from Yemen targeting multiple Eastern Province facilities simultaneously",
      "description": "Several Eastern Province petroleum facilities are assumed to be disrupted at the same time. The scenario groups the data centres assigned to the affected grid zone. It does not calculate how many weapons would penetrate defences or which electricity connections would fail.",
      "primaryTargets": [
        "pet-abqaiq",
        "pet-ras-tanura",
        "pet-jubail"
      ],
      "gridZonesAffected": [
        "gz-eastern"
      ],
      "dcFacilitiesAffected": [
        "sa-google-dammam",
        "sa-aramco-dhahran"
      ],
      "estimatedOutageDuration": "Days to weeks (multiple grid nodes affected)",
      "historicalBasis": "Houthi drone escalation trajectory 2019-2024. Red Sea campaign demonstrated 100+ drone/missile salvos.",
      "source": "CSIS; IISS",
      "authorityTier": 3,
      "case_basis": "Authored disruption assumption; not a simulated outcome",
      "selection_scope_note": "Use the named site and grid-zone sets; regional membership alone does not expand the authored selection.",
      "data_source": "CSIS; IISS",
      "source_url": null,
      "source_urls": [],
      "authority_tier": 3,
      "data_vintage": null,
      "is_estimated": null
    },
    {
      "id": "grid-targeted",
      "name": "Targeted Grid Attack",
      "attackVector": "Precision strike on Eastern Province grid substations and transmission infrastructure",
      "description": "An interruption to Eastern Province electricity infrastructure is assumed to affect both petroleum facilities and data centres. The map identifies sites assigned to that grid zone. Outage extent would depend on the damaged connections, alternative supplies and backup arrangements, which this assessment does not simulate.",
      "primaryTargets": [],
      "gridZonesAffected": [
        "gz-eastern"
      ],
      "dcFacilitiesAffected": [
        "sa-google-dammam",
        "sa-aramco-dhahran"
      ],
      "estimatedOutageDuration": "Weeks to months (transformer replacement lead time is 6-12 months for custom HV units)",
      "historicalBasis": "Ukraine grid attacks 2022-2024 demonstrated vulnerability of civilian grid to military targeting. Transformer replacement is the critical constraint.",
      "source": "Ukraine grid attack analysis; DOE transformer reports",
      "authorityTier": 3,
      "case_basis": "Authored disruption assumption; not a simulated outcome",
      "selection_scope_note": "Use the named site and grid-zone sets; regional membership alone does not expand the authored selection.",
      "data_source": "Ukraine grid attack analysis; DOE transformer reports",
      "source_url": null,
      "source_urls": [],
      "authority_tier": 3,
      "data_vintage": null,
      "is_estimated": null
    },
    {
      "id": "multi-vector",
      "name": "Combined Vector Attack",
      "attackVector": "Simultaneous drone swarm + ballistic missiles + cyber",
      "description": "Concurrent physical damage and disruption to grid-control systems are assumed to affect the Eastern and Central zones. Riyadh enters the scenario through the assumed control-system disruption. The resulting list of data centres follows these zone assignments; it is not a prediction of successful attacks or power losses.",
      "primaryTargets": [
        "pet-abqaiq",
        "pet-ras-tanura"
      ],
      "gridZonesAffected": [
        "gz-eastern",
        "gz-central"
      ],
      "dcFacilitiesAffected": [
        "sa-google-dammam",
        "sa-aramco-dhahran",
        "sa-aws-riyadh",
        "sa-stc-riyadh"
      ],
      "estimatedOutageDuration": "Hours (kinetic) to weeks (if cyber component degrades grid management)",
      "historicalBasis": "The combination of physical and grid-control disruption is a scenario assumption. The cited regional conflict history does not establish this combined outcome for Saudi electricity infrastructure.",
      "source": "Iran-Israel conflict analysis; CSIS; CRS",
      "authorityTier": 3,
      "case_basis": "Authored disruption assumption; not a simulated outcome",
      "selection_scope_note": "The named selected set is Google Cloud Dammam, Aramco Digital, AWS Saudi Arabia and STC. Oracle Riyadh and DataVolt also have Central-zone assignments but are outside this authored set; no selection rationale is recorded. The broad original description does not expand the named set.",
      "data_source": "Iran-Israel conflict analysis; CSIS; CRS",
      "source_url": null,
      "source_urls": [],
      "authority_tier": 3,
      "data_vintage": null,
      "is_estimated": null
    }
  ]
}